The 49ers haven’t faced a better player than Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes this season. With all due respect to Lamar Jackson, who should be the NFL MVP, Mahomes is just on a level as a passer that puts him in the conversation for best throwers to ever put on an NFL uniform. The combination of Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy makes for a lethal trio capable of racking up points in a way the 49ers haven’t seen all season.
San Francisco experienced Mahomes first hand last season when he carved up their defense to the tune of 252 yards and three touchdowns in the first half while Kansas City jumped out to a 35-10 lead.
There was one play in particular in that first half that encapsulated why Mahomes is so dangerous.
On first-and-goal from the 49ers’ 4, Mahomes dropped to pass and was immediately pressured by DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. He rolled left all the way to the numbers before whirling around to race back the other way. The 49ers defensive line was doing its job, keeping Mahomes from surveying the field and getting comfortable. It didn’t matter.
With defensive end Cassius Marsh in tow, Mahomes sprinted to the opposite numbers and without setting his feet at the 20-yard-line, he let a sidearm laser rip to the back corner of the end zone where wide receiver Chris Conley was standing all alone for a touchdown. It was a magnificent play.
Mahomes continued that all through last season and took home the league’s MVP award behind 5,000 yards passing and 50 touchdowns.
Injuries were the only sophomore slump Mahomes experienced in 2019, and the Chiefs offense, for the most part, continued rolling as a juggernaut.
They finished third in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA this year, and second in passing DVOA. It was the second year in a row that the Mahomes-led passing attack has finished in the top two in efficiency.
The third-year quarterback’s career numbers are incredible. He’s 24-7 in 31 starts. He’s completing 65.9 percent of his throws for 9,412 yards with 76 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He’s going at 8.6 yards-per-attempt for his career with a 108.9 passer rating.
And those aren’t empty numbers, either. The Chiefs score a lot. In 27 wins across the regular season and playoffs, Kansas City is averaging 33 points per game, and they’ve never posted fewer than 23 in a victory. They eclipsed the 40-point mark six times.
Perhaps the more absurd numbers are the Chiefs’ point totals in Mahomes’ losses. The Chiefs have lost only eight times with Mahomes as a starter. They average an absurd 31.3 points per game in losses, and scored fewer than 20 only once.
Put simply, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback this tremendous 49ers pass defense has faced all season, and keeping Kansas City out of the end zone isn’t going to be as easy as it was keeping Minnesota and Green Bay from scoring.
There are a couple of silver linings here for San Francisco.
First, this is not the same defense Mahomes shredded a season ago. They’ve since added edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward are both playing like Pro Bowl caliber safeties, and their linebacking corps has received significant upgrades with Dre Greenlaw and Kwon Alexander.
Miscommunications in the secondary, missed tackles and a general lack of talent to match Kansas City plagued the 49ers’ defense a season ago. That won’t be the case this time.
Second, Mahomes hasn’t been perfect despite the insane scoring numbers the Chiefs rack up when he plays. He has a penchant for turning would-be sacks into huge gains by turning his back to the defense while scrambling, then getting his head around to find an open receiver. From there, he relies on his baseball background and the howitzer attached to his right shoulder to fire throws to long-forgotten receivers down the field.
Limiting those plays is going to be essential for San Francisco. That means Ward and Tartt both need to ensure receivers aren’t sneaking in behind them when Mahomes scrambles. Richard Sherman on Friday addressed the need to play sound in the back end vs. the Chiefs’ passing game.
“You know, I don’t think there’s any individual key to defending him,” Sherman said of the Chiefs’ quarterback. “You’ve got to play good defense. You’ve got to contain the receivers. You’ve got to do your job. You’ve got to limit the big plays, but it’s easier said than done for sure.”
Finally, their speed in the front seven should help limit Mahomes and the passing game in a couple ways. The raw speed to chase Mahomes down should limit the time he’s able to create on roll outs.
If they do keep everything covered up down the field and Mahomes opts for a check down or a shorter throw, the 49ers have the speed at linebacker to close quickly and limit yards after the catch.
While Mahomes is the best quarterback the 49ers have faced all year, the 49ers are also the best defense Mahomes has faced all year. The immovable San Francisco has all the tools to slow down the unstoppable Chiefs offense, but history shows that even slowing them down means taking some lumps. If the 49ers can limit big plays, they have all the pieces to keep Kansas City from lighting up the scoreboard.
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