There’s a philosophical debate silently raging in the NFL right now between teams that value running backs enough to pay them top dollar and use premium draft capital on them, and teams that don’t.
The 49ers are starkly on the latter side. They’ve used one draft pick on the position since head coach Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco – a fourth-rounder in 2017 on Utah’s Joe Williams. He never played a regular season snap for the club.
They did shell out a hefty four-year, $30 million deal with $18 million guaranteed for Jerick McKinnon during the 2018 offseason, but knee injuries kept him from suiting up during his first two years with the team. He restructured his deal this offseason and landed on a one-year contract worth $1,160,000.
Their contracts for running backs after the McKinnon deal have been more modest. While leaning heavily on undrafted free agents, they also scooped up Tevin Coleman prior to last season on a two-year, $8.5 million deal. The result of McKinnon’s injury and successful UDFA choices pushed the 49ers backwards into offering an argument for how teams can build a successful rushing attack without tying up salary cap space in the backfield.
San Francisco finished No. 2 in the NFL in rushing yards last season while working with Coleman (a third-round pick of the Falcons in 2015), former undrafted free agents Matt Breida and Jeff Wilson Jr, and journeyman UDFA Raheem Mostert.
Those four carried a combined average annual value of $8,231,667. McKinnon’s AAV would’ve added $7,500,000 to that figure, but he missed the season with an ACL injury.
What the 49ers might’ve done is offered a team-building blueprint for clubs that are confident in their ability to build out a roster while filling in running back spots on the margins, and identifying players talented enough to perform despite flying under the radar either through free agency or the draft.
Shanahan and running backs coach Bobby Turner got high-end production out of their backfield without any high-priced or highly-drafted talent. The result was modest expenditures on four running backs that out-produced all of the highest-paid running backs in the NFL.
Here’s the 49ers’ four running backs combined AAV and what they did on the stat sheet last season:
49ers running backs: $8,231,667
424 carries, 2,044 yards, 19 touchdowns
57 catches, 514 yards, 5 touchdowns
Here’s what the five highest-paid running backs by AAV did in 2019:
Ezekiel Elliott: $15 million
301 carries, 1,357 yards, 12 touchdowns
54 catches, 420 yards, 2 touchdowns
Todd Gurley: $14,375,000
223 carries, 857 yards, 12 touchdowns
31 catches, 207 yards, 2 touchdowns
Le’Veon Bell: $13,125,000
245 carries, 789 yards, 3 touchdowns
66 catches, 461 yards, 1 touchdown
David Johnson: $13,000,000
94 carries, 345 yards, 2 touchdowns
36 catches, 370 yards, 4 touchdowns
Devonta Freeman: $8,250,000
184 carries, 656 yards, 2 touchdowns
59 catches, 410 yards, 4 touchdowns
The 49ers got more carries, yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns out of their four backs, all for less than the price of a top-five running back by AAV. Saving money at RB allows the club to allocate those financial resources elsewhere.
San Francisco went to the Super Bowl. None of the five highest-paid RBs made the playoffs. That’s not to say a highly-compensated running back can’t make the postseason. Too many variables go into wins and losses to blame it on misappropriated funds to one player. However, the logic tracks that it’s easier to build a contender in the modern NFL when a significant portion of the salary cap isn’t tied up in the backfield while the league becomes more pass-heavy than ever.
On the other hand, an effective running game is still crucial, which is why “running backs don’t matter” is a little extreme. Good running backs do matter, but finding good running backs for less than top-of-market money matters more than simply having a good player at that position. The Cowboys found an elite running back in Elliott and paid him like it. Meanwhile, the 49ers found a group of players who produce at an elite rate in their offense while paying them just over half of what Elliott is making.
The 49ers didn’t mean to stumble onto this bargain-bin philosophy on running backs, but they made it work in 2019 on their way to the Super Bowl, and now they’re aiming to make it work again in 2020. Perhaps their 2019 example is an outlier and they come back down to Earth this season. If they find a way to have one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks again without shelling out big-time money for running backs though, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more teams follow suit.
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