Why Houston Will Win
– The offense is balanced and it’s versatile. It isn’t quite the devastating thrill ride it was supposed to be – injuries had a lot to do with it – but the play of QB Clayton Tune has been good and the running game has occasionally been amazing.
Start with the running game. Don’t force any throws, don’t turn the ball over, and pound away on a Hawaii run defense that’s allowing 231 yards per game and over 200 against everyone but Fresno State and Boise State.
– The Houston defensive front can get behind the line. The pass rush is terrific with a veteran group that keeps the pressure on, and there are just enough tackles for loss to be okay against the run. There were big problems with the speed of the UCF running game and the power of Cincinnati, but Hawaii’s ground attack doesn’t have the pop of either one. It doesn’t help that …
– Hawaii’s offensive line has a massive problem with anyone with a pass rush. The Rainbow Warrior running game went off on Fresno State to start the season, and it was good against UNLV to end it, but nine of the 15 rushing scores came in those two games and there were just 39 more rushing yards in the middle six games than those two bookends. Get the pass rush going, stop the first down runs, and Houston stops the Hawaii offense.
Why Hawaii Will Win
– Can Hawaii get the passing game going? There really is a running game when QB Chevan Cordeiro gets moving, but the offense is far better when the Rainbow Warriors can throw.
They were able to shock Nevada when Cordeiro hit 81% of his passes, and he connected on 77% of his throws against New Mexico. Hawaii is 4-1 when he completes more than 60% of his passes, and 0-3 when he doesn’t.
– Houston’s pass defense has been solid throughout the year – it has allowed teams to complete just 58% of their throws – however, most of the teams that couldn’t hit the mark struggled with their accuracy all year. BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis were all able to hit the midrange-to-deep passes – Cordeiro has to take his chances and keep throwing. If he gets hot, Houston is in trouble.
– The Rainbow Warrior defense has to force takeaways. Houston doesn’t come up with turnovers, and the offense has given it away multiple times three times in the last four games, losing all three. Hawaii hasn’t lost the turnover battle in the last five games.