Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

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The Houston Texans (9-5) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) on Saturday afternoon in Week 16. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Texans vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Houston beat the Miami Dolphins 20-12 Sunday while covering as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston’s offense struggled, gaining just 181 yards and 12 first downs, but Houston’s defense forced 4 turnovers that proved pivotal in the win. CB Derek Stingley Jr. had 2 interceptions and held star WR Tyreek Hill to just 2 receptions for 36 yards.

Kansas City picked up a 21-7 win over the Cleveland Browns Sunday while covering as a 4.5-point favorite. The Chiefs’ defense was dominant against Cleveland, forcing 6 turnovers while also holding the Browns to just 266 total yards and just 4-of-12 on third down.

QB Patrick Mahomes went down with an ankle injury against the Browns, but is expected to start this contest. How long he plays is uncertain.

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Texans at Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Friday at 6:51 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Texans +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Chiefs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Texans +3.5 (-110) | Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 42 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Texans at Chiefs key injuries

Texans

LB Christian Harris (ankle) out
DT Folorunso Fatukasi (ankle) out
OL Juice Scruggs (foot) out

Chiefs

CB Chamarri Conner (concussion) out
OT D.J. Humphries (hamstring) out

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Texans at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 21, Texans 19

Moneyline

PASS.

Kansas City (-200) is the better team and is also much hotter, being 9-1 in its last 10 games and having won 4 straight while Houston is only 6-4 in its last 10 outings. The Chiefs have also beaten Houston in each of their last 3 meetings. But you can’t risk this much, especially because the health of Mahomes is still in question.

Against the spread

BET TEXANS +3.5 (-110).

Houston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 games and 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 while KC is just 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games.

The Chiefs have also allowed lesser opponents to keep games very competitive. Recently the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers kept games within 3 points.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 42 (-110).

The Under has hit in each of KC’s last 3 games and is 8-6 for the Chiefs this season. For Houston, the Under has hit in back-to-back games and is 9-4-1 this year.

Kansas City and Houston both have very good defenses that allow under 310 opponent yards per game and under 22 opponent points per game, with the Chiefs allowing just 18.5 ppg to opponents.

Be aware that the Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups between these squads.

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