Other than a Dec. 22 start date, the 2020-21 NBA schedule has yet to be released. Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and the likelihood of game postponements, given the lack of a “bubble” abd with teams playing in usual home markets, any schedule is subject to change, anyway.
However, the league does have a formula for deciding each team’s opponents over the slightly abbreviated slate of 72 games. The NBA’s goal is to conclude next season in July, in hopes of getting the 2021-22 season back to the usual timetable of October through June, which was thrown off when the pandemic stalled 2019-20 for four-plus months.
As for next season, the Rockets will play each team in the Western Conference three times (two home, one road, or vice versa), and each Eastern Conference team twice (one home, one road).
NBA announces structure and format for 2020-21 season pic.twitter.com/i2tF2SQyXR
— NBA (@NBA) November 18, 2020
Within opponents in the West, where the Rockets finished No. 4 last season, Houston will play each Pacific Division team twice at home and once on the road. Meanwhile, they will face each Northwest Division team twice on the road and once at Toyota Center. Within the five-team Southwest Division, the NBA randomly assigned two opponents to be played twice at home, as well as two to be played twice on the road.
For the Rockets, here’s what the West scheduling matrix results in:
Two home games: Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Suns, Kings, Mavs, Grizzlies
Two road games: Nuggets, Wolves, Thunder, Blazers, Jazz, Pelicans, Spurs
On paper, having two home games against the Warriors, Clippers, Mavs, and defending NBA champion Lakers would seem to be a lucrative draw for potential ticket sales. However, the Rockets have yet to announce whether they will have fans at Toyota Center to begin the upcoming season — and if so, at what percentage of usual capacity (18,023).
For comparison, the NFL’s Houston Texans — who play at NRG Stadium — have had fans at 20% of usual capacity for most of this season. Should a similar rate of “social distancing” be in place for Toyota Center, that would make for a crowd of less than 4,000 fans per game. It’s possible, of course, that capacity limits could increase as the season moves along, given the potential availability of COVID-19 vaccines or treatments.
Per the NBA, the first half of the regular season will be held from Dec. 22, 2020, through March 4, 2021. Then, the second half of the season will be held from March 11, 2021, through May 16, 2021.
Via NBA's 2020-21 scheduling matrix, here are the home/road #Rockets splits for West teams (3 games each):
2 home games: Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Suns, Kings, Mavs, Grizzlies
2 road games: Nuggets, Wolves, Thunder, Blazers, Jazz, Pelicans, Spurs
For East teams, all 1 and 1.
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) November 18, 2020
When the schedule is first released — near the start of team training camps on Dec. 1, 2020 — the NBA will only release the schedule for the opening half of the season. By design, the schedule for the “second half” won’t be released until midway through the regular season, since the league anticipates having to reschedule select games due to the pandemic and postponements due to positive COVID-19 test results.
“The second-half schedule will include the remainder of each team’s 72 games not scheduled in the first half, as well as any games postponed during the first half that can reasonably be added to the second-half schedule,” the NBA writes in its official announcement.
The “that can reasonably be added” disclaimer leaves the door open to some teams not finishing at the target number of 72 games. If that’s the case, the NBA would likely decide standings (for playoff seeding) by winning percentage, as they did in 2019-20 when not all teams had played the same number of games at the time of the COVID-19 hiatus.
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