The Golden State Warriors (24-28) host the Houston Rockets (14-38) Saturday for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off at the Chase Center. Below, we analyze the Rockets-Warriors odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Houston got clubbed last night 126-109 by the Los Angeles Clippers as 11-point road underdogs to start its three-game Pacific Division road swing. The Rockets are just 1-6 overall and 3-4 against the spread over their last seven games.
Golden State lost a 110-107 nail-biter to the Washington Wizards last night as 7.5-point home favorites. Over the past two weeks, the Warriors 2-5 overall and ATS.
The Warriors beat up on the Rockets 108-94 as 11-point road favorites on St. Patty’s Day, but this was before Houston added PF Kelly Olynyk at the trade deadline and Rockets PG John Wall was sidelined with injury.
Rockets at Warriors: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockets +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Warriors -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockets +8.5 (-110) | Warriors -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Rockets at Warriors: Key injuries
Rockets
- SG Eric Gordon (groin) out
- SF Danuel House (ankle) out
- SF David Nwaba (wrist) out
Warriors
- PF Eric Paschall (hip) out
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Rockets at Warriors: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Warriors 117, Rockets 112
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “LEAN” to the Rockets (+300) because I “LIKE” Houston to cover the spread and often will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line if betting them ATS.
What’s stopping me is the Warriors (-375) have a lot more to play for and just lost a heartbreaker to the Washington Wizards last night.
Golden State is only ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for 10th in the Western Conference—which is the final seed for the postseason play-in tournament—so the Warriors need to stack wins.
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Against the spread (ATS)
This is a better spot for Houston than Golden State.
One of the only non-terrible situational trends for the Rockets is their 10-11 ATS record as a road dog this season. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS on the second of a back-to-back with the 3rd-worst ATS margin (minus-7.3 points).
The “sharp” side of the market agrees with this as well.
According to Pregame.com, more money is on the Rockets to cover while more bets have been placed on the Warriors laying the points, and bookmakers have moved this line down from Golden State being favored 10 points on the opener.
The money column is generally considered “sharp money” with the tickets column being the “average Joe”, and we want to follow the money – especially because of the line movement.
BET ROCKETS +8.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 227.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit, if at all, because my predicted score isn’t that far off BetMGM‘s projected total.
However, there’s inherent value on the Over in this spot since the Warriors only scored 107 last night vs. a terrible Washington defense and because Houston’s former generational scorer (James Harden) forced his way out.
That being said, I definitely prefer Houston’s spread more than the total in Rockets-Warriors.
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