On Saturday afternoon, the Houston Rockets (1-7) head to the Pepsi Center to take on the Denver Nuggets (4-4). Tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Rockets at Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
While the Nuggets record may show just a .500 team, they’ve only lost to the Grizzlies twice, the Cavaliers and the Jazz. A 12-point loss to Cleveland has been their lone blemish at home this season.
With MVP Nikola Jokic leading the way and the team still sitting at just .500, Denver has clearly missed offense from injured guard Jamal Murray. After a strong playoff run last season, the Nuggets will be heavy favorites on their home court. This will be their first game since Wednesday.
The Rockets are no pushover though, having No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green starting to enter the spotlight. C Christian Wood leads the team in scoring, and his length should impact Jokic. Not often the favorite, the Rockets are 4-4 ATS, so they’ve generally kept games as close as expected.
Rockets at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:47 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockets +470 (bet $100 to win $470) | Nuggets -700 (bet $700 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Rockets +11.5 (-112) | Nuggets -11.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Rockets at Nuggets key injuries
Rockets
- C Daniel Theis (toe) questionable
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
Rockets at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 112, Rockets 103
Money line
PASS on the money line. The Nuggets were 25-11 at home last year season.
They’ve kicked off this season 2-1 on their home court. At -700, there’s no value in betting on Denver. The Rockets have some potential, but having lost six straight, there’s not much hope for them to win outright.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the ROCKETS +11.5 (-112) as the best value. Denver is just 3-5 against the spread.
The Nuggets offense has been in a slump this season as they rank 23rd in offensive rating despite having the league MVP on their side. Denver has the second-worst offensive turnover rate which is also a cause for concern. There’s no reason to think Jokic and the Nuggets will pummel Houston.
Considering Wood’s 7-foot-3 wingspan, he should be able to impact Jokic’s performance. The Rockets rank 17th in defensive rating, so while not great, it’s far better than a one-win team should be.
If the Rockets can show competence offensively, they should be able to hold the game to single digits. Houston has lost four of their games by more than 11, covering the other four.
Given Denver’s struggles, Houston’s spread feels like the better play.
Over/Under
BET on the UNDER 216.5 (-107) as the best bet in this game.
The Rockets rank as the fastest-playing team in the NBA, No. 1 in pace. However, the Nuggets, behind Jokic, can typically control games, and they are sitting in the bottom third of the league in pace.
With a top-five defensive rating, the Nuggets should be able to hold down an inconsistent Rockets team. Houston has scored under 100 in three of its last six games.
While Green is a stud, he’s shot over 40 percent in just two games this season. Expect Houston to struggle offensively. Denver holds teams to under 45 percent from the field and has the sixth-best defensive rebounding rate.
Denver should be able to limit Houston. Considering the Nuggets’ poor offensive rating yet their quality defense, the Under is the better play.
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