The Houston Astros (15-10) start a three-game series at the San Diego Padres (15-12) at Petco Park on Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. We analyze Friday’s Astros-Padres MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Houston is 5-6 straight-up and 6-5 on the Run Line on the road. San Diego is 8-4 straight-up and 8-4 against the run line at home.
Astros at Padres: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Lance McCullers at RHP Garrett Richards
McCullers in 2020: 2-1, 5.47 ERA, 23:10 K:BB in 26 1/3 IP (5 GS)
- Last start: 8/16, ND vs. Seattle Mariners … 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K
- Career on the road: 5.06 ERA in 46 G (43 GS)
Richards in 2020: 1-1, 3.25 ERA, 21:9 K:BB in 28 2/3 IP
- Career at Petco Park: 6.17 ERA in 3 GS
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Astros at Padres: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Astros
- RP Josh James (hip) questionable
- DH Yordan Alvarez (knee) out
- OF Michael Brantley (quadriceps) out
- 3B Alex Bregman (hamstring) out
- RP Brad Peacock (shoulder) out
Padres
- RP Drew Pomeranz (shoulder) questionable
- OF Tommy Pham (hand) out
- C Francisco Mejia (thumb) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Astros at Padres: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Padres 5, Astros 3
Both of these clubs are dealing with significant injuries with hitting and pitching, but the Padres have just enough bodies left to weather this storm.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is scorching-hot right now, and Eric Hosmer‘s grand slam Thursday made the Friars the first MLB club to hit one in four straight games.
Most importantly, the Padres are overcoming their pitcher-friendly environment with the fifth-best home OPS in the league (.840).
Moneyline (ML)
- Astros +115
- Padres -129
Given how Houston’s offense looks more like the pre-trash-can-era card, BETTING the Padres (-129) is the SAFEST PLAY of the lot.
New to sports betting? To win a $10 profit on the Padres (-129), you would be required to bet $12.90.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Astros +1.5 (-189)
- Padres -1.5 (+155)
I teetered on whether to bump my prediction up to a two-run margin of victory, given that I still have some faith in McCullers, but Richards can match him for the duration of their starts, and the absence of Houston’s normal closer Roberto Osuna (Tommy John surgery?) exemplifies this depleted bullpen.
BET Padres -1.5 (+155) for the most logical risk-reward wager.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Padres -1.5 (+155) would return a profit of $15.50.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 8.5 (-121)
- Under 8.5 (100)
Yes, I posted a total of eight runs, but I’d rather focus on the first two categories than this one. McCullers and Richards have high peaks and low valleys of performance, and I’d rather not try to guess which will happen on both mounds. PASS.
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