Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (79-56) tangle with the San Diego Padres (72-64) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the series rubber match. San Diego picked up a 10-2 win Saturday after Houston beat the Padres 6-2 Friday.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2.

RHP Luis Garcia is Houston’s projected starter. Garcia is 10-6 with a 3.23 ERA (128 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 23 starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Houston’s 4-3 victory at the Seattle Mariners Monday with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • Road splits: 4-3 with a 4.85 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.37 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Chris Paddack gets the nod for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.98 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 20 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K in San Diego’s 7-5 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday.
  • Home splits: 3-4 with a 6.59 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.68 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB in nine starts and one bullpen outing.

Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Padres 5, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-110) because we are a huge “line freeze” in the betting market and this is just a better spot for San Diego.

According to the early-morning action report at Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered was on the Astros, but oddsmakers didn’t touch Houston’s money line.

Furthermore, Garcia is a lot less effective on the road than at home and the Padres are 12-5 overall in interleague games while the Astros are just 7-9.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though it would be great to have some insurance for our San Diego money line wager. However, the Padres +1.5 (-180) needs to be south of -150 before I’d wager on them.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-107) for a tiny wager because there’s a little “reverse line movement” in the betting market as roughly 90% of the money bet in the early-morning action report is on the Over according to Pregame.com. However, oddsmakers have brought the Astros-Padres total down from the flat-9 opener.

It’s a red flag whenever the House makes the more popular side cheaper. This suggests sportsbooks want more pro-Over wagers because the oddsmakers think their projected total is sharp.

However, since my handicap of the Astros-Padres is mostly just a “contrarian play” against a market barreling into the Over, I’m not confident enough to bet a lot on the Under.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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