The Houston Astros (2-0) meet the Oakland Athletics (0-2) Saturday for their third of a four-game series at RingCentral Coliseum. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston took the first two games of the series by a combined score of 17-6, and Astros 3B Alex Bregman hit a home run in both games with 5 RBIs.
Season series: Astros 2-0.
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. is on the bump for the Astros Saturday. McCullers was 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 55 IP in 11 starts last season.
- 2021 Spring Training: 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA (7 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 11 K, 2 BB) over 3 starts.
- 2020 vs. Athletics: 1-0 with 6 innings pitched, 1 ER, 6 H, 7 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
RHP Cole Irvin is making his 2021 and Athletics debut today. This is Irvin’s fourth career start and first since 2019 when he was pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 2021 Spring Training: 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA (18 IP, 2 ER, 18 K, 3 BB) in 5 appearances (3 starts).
- Career: 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in his 19 appearances.
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Astros at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Athletics +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+125) | Athletics +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Athletics 7, Astros 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” towards ATHLETICS (+105) for a half-unit only because it’s hard to forecast how Oakland’s starting pitcher will perform since Irvin hasn’t made a start since 2019.
However, McCullers got shelled on the road in 2020. He was 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in six road starts last season, and Houston is 0-4 in McCullers’ last four starts as a road favorite.
Furthermore, McCullers’ most-used pitch in his arsenal is the sinker, and the Athletics have four hitters in their lineup with a .420 wOBA or higher vs. sinkers last season, including DH/1B Mitch Moreland, who Oakland acquired this offseason.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a “LEAN” toward Athletics +1.5 (-150) because I wouldn’t hate putting Oakland’s run line in a parlay with the Philadelphia Phillies’ run line for a plus-money payout. But, laying -150 for Oakland’s run line on its own is a no-go.
Over/Under (O/U)
Houston’s lineup was in the bottom-10 of wOBA, wRC+ and slugging percentage in baseball last season. But, most seamheads expect that to progress back to the mean in 2020.
The Astros scored five earned runs against lefties in Oakland’s bullpen on Opening Day, and seven of their eight runs yesterday were against left-handed pitchers.
Also, the Over is 6-0 in Oakland’s last six games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-0 in the last four Astros-Athletics games.
BET OVER 9 (-105) for 1 unit.
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