The Houston Astros (45-27) head to Citi Field Tuesday for the 1st of an interleague back-to-back with the New York Mets (47-27) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston is 7-3 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 4-game series split this past weekend with the New York Yankees and a sweep of the 1st Astros-Mets back-to-back in Houston last week.
N.Y. is 6-4 SU in the last 10, and all 6 wins came against the Miami Marlins, but the Mets lost in their last outing, 3-2, vs. the Marlins Sunday.
The Astros lead the season series with the Mets 2-0, and Houston outscored N.Y. 13-5 in those meetings.
Astros at Mets projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Valdez is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 87 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 7-6 loss at the Yankees Thursday with 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 road splits: 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.91 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 in 8 starts.
Carrasco is 8-3 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 77 1/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5-3, Wednesday in N.Y. with 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 home splits: 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2 HR and 8.8 K/9 in 7 starts.
Astros at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+133) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Astros at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Mets 3
Money line
GIMME the ASTROS (-125) because they hit better vs. right-handed pitching than the Mets (+102) do against lefties, and there has been a sharp line move towards Houston in the betting market.
Houston’s lineup is 4th in wRC+ (115), 6th in wOBA (.324), 3rd in ISO (.183) and 3rd in BB/K rate (0.45) vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs. While N.Y. is 14th in wRC+ (107), 17th in wOBA (.313), 23rd in ISO (.135) and 24th in hard-hit rate (27.7%).
Also, Carrasco has come back down to earth following a great start to 2022. In June, Carrasco has a 5.33 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 6 HRs allowed in 5 starts. Carrasco left his last start with back tightness, which will be something to watch in this one.
Finally, the Astros opened at -105 but nearly two-thirds of the cash is on Houston, which has steamed it up to the current number (according to Pregame.com).
BET 1 unit on the ASTROS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Astros -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 13-17 RL as road favorites whereas the Mets +1.5 (-170) are 12-9 RL as underdogs and 9-1 RL when playing after a rest day.
Over/Under
PASS.
Houston plays more to the Under in its location- and situational-based O/U trends while N.Y. plays more to the Over and the rest-based O/U trends don’t provide a clue either way.
I “lean” Under 8.5 (-125) since the price suggests it’s the sharper play and a majority of the market is backing the Over. Otherwise, I don’t have much on the total.
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