Houston Astros at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (45-27) head to Citi Field Tuesday for the 1st of an interleague back-to-back with the New York Mets (47-27) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston is 7-3 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 4-game series split this past weekend with the New York Yankees and a sweep of the 1st Astros-Mets back-to-back in Houston last week.

N.Y. is 6-4 SU in the last 10, and all 6 wins came against the Miami Marlins, but the Mets lost in their last outing, 3-2, vs. the Marlins Sunday.

The Astros lead the season series with the Mets 2-0, and Houston outscored  N.Y. 13-5 in those meetings.

Astros at Mets projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco     

Valdez is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 87 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 7-6 loss at the Yankees Thursday with 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 7 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.91 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 in 8 starts.

Carrasco is 8-3 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 77 1/3 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 5-3, Wednesday in N.Y. with 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 2 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2 HR and 8.8 K/9 in 7 starts.

Astros at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+133) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Astros at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mets 3

Money line

GIMME the ASTROS (-125) because they hit better vs. right-handed pitching than the Mets (+102) do against lefties, and there has been a sharp line move towards Houston in the betting market.

Houston’s lineup is 4th in wRC+ (115), 6th in wOBA (.324), 3rd in ISO (.183) and 3rd in BB/K rate (0.45) vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs. While N.Y. is 14th in wRC+ (107), 17th in wOBA (.313), 23rd in ISO (.135) and 24th in hard-hit rate (27.7%).

Also, Carrasco has come back down to earth following a great start to 2022. In June, Carrasco has a 5.33 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 6 HRs allowed in 5 starts. Carrasco left his last start with back tightness, which will be something to watch in this one.

Finally, the Astros opened at -105 but nearly two-thirds of the cash is on Houston, which has steamed it up to the current number (according to Pregame.com).

BET 1 unit on the ASTROS (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Astros -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 13-17 RL as road favorites whereas the Mets +1.5 (-170) are 12-9 RL as underdogs and 9-1 RL when playing after a rest day.

Over/Under

PASS.

Houston plays more to the Under in its location- and situational-based O/U trends while N.Y. plays more to the Over and the rest-based O/U trends don’t provide a clue either way.

I “lean” Under 8.5 (-125) since the price suggests it’s the sharper play and a majority of the market is backing the Over. Otherwise, I don’t have much on the total.

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