The sixth-seeded Houston Astros and No. 3 seed Minnesota Twins open their best-of-three AL Wild Card Series Tuesday at Target Field with the first pitch scheduled for 2:08 p.m. ET (on ABC). Below, we analyze the Astros-Twins MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Astros at Twins: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Zack Greinke vs. RHP Kenta Maeda
Greinke: 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 in 67 IP over 12 GS.
- Career in playoffs: 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 84 K and 25 BB in 92 IP over 16 GS.
- The current Twins lineup’s slash line & stats vs. Greinke: .220/.281/.288 with 1 HR and 7 RBI given up against 59 batters, according to dailybaseballdata.com.
- 2020 road splits: 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA (3.48 ERA at home), 1.20 WHIP (1.07 WHIP at home) and 7.3 K/9 (10.7 K/9 at home).
Maeda: 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 66 2/3 IP over 11 GS.
- Career in playoffs: 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 39 K and 12 BB in 32 2/3 IP over 24 G (3 GS).
- The current Astros lineup’s slash line & stats vs. Maeda: .172/.226/.276 with 0 HR and 2 RBI allowed vs. 29 batters, according to dailybaseballdata.com.
- 2020 home splits: 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA (3.48 ERA on the road), 0.55 WHIP (0.95 WHIP on the road) and 11.5 K/9 (10.2 K/9 on the road).
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Astros at Twins: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Astros
- RP Brad Peacock (shoulder) out
- RP Roberto Osuna (elbow) out
Twins
- 3B Josh Donaldson (calf) questionable
- CF Byron Buxton (concussion) questionable
Astros at Twins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:38 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Twins 4, Astros 2
Money line (ML)
The TWINS (-167) have the best home record in MLB (24-7) and tied with Houston for the second-best winning percentage as a home favorite (76.9%).
The Astros (+150) have the fifth-worst winning percentage as a road underdog (21.4%) and Greinke’s numbers worsen in road games. Maeda might be motivated by revenge as well. He pitched on the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers team that lost in the World Series to the Houston Astros. And we know about the sketchiness surrounding the previous Astros’ postseasons.
Maeda pitched 5 2/3 innings and allowed five hits, one earned run, struck out three hitters and walked two in his four World Series appearances against the Astros. Minnesota’s lineup hits well against righties; the Twins score one-plus runs more per game and have a slugging percentage 106 points higher vs. right-handed pitchers.
All this plus the Astros being 1-5 in their last six games in Target Field has me liking TWINS (-162). New to sports betting? A $162 bet on the Twins returns a $100 profit if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Astros +1.5 (-154) are 10-14 in one-run games. That’s a lot of one-run games and it gives me pause when looking at Twins -1.5 (+125). My knee-jerk reaction is PASS ON THE RUN LINE mainly because the payout is too cheap.
Over/Under (O/U)
Greinke has struggled down the stretch this season: In September, Greinke is 1-3 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. But Minnesota’s offense is fairly average in 2020. Houston’s offense has been in the middle of the league in several hitting categories as well.
The Over 7.5 (-110) has the following trends backing it: The Over is 4-0 in Astros’ last four playoff games as an underdog and the Over is 5-0-2 in Twins’ last seven home games.
I lean toward the hitting struggling more so than the pitching and to the UNDER 7.5 (-110). A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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