The Los Angeles Angels (72-77) host the Houston Astros (88-61) Monday for the start of their four-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Astros lead 10-5.
LHP Framber Valdez is Houston’s projected starter. Valdez is 10-5 with a 3.26 ERA (116 IP, 42 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 across 19 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 10-5, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 6 K vs. the Angels Sept. 10 in his only 2021 appearance against L.A.
- vs. Angels on the current roster (73 PA): 4.72 FIP with a .270 batting average (BA), .331 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.5 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Jaime Barria is on the rubber for the Angels. Barria is 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 across nine starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-1 loss at the Astros Sept. 12 with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
- Barria is 0-1 against Houston this season with a 5.14 ERA (7 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 7 K in two starts.
- vs. Astros on the current roster (134 PA): 6.53 FIP with a .308 BA, .410 wOBA, .453 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 89.0 mph EV.
Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:02 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Angels +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-135) | Angels +1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Astros 6, Angels 5
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Angels (+175) because I like them on the run line, L.A. has a winning record both at home and against lefty starters and the line hasn’t moved much from the opening number despite one-sided action on the Astros.
However, Houston is 44-22 vs. AL West foes, is playing much better baseball than Los Angeles at the moment and the Angels’ roster is probably starting to make offseason plans while the Astros are ramping up for postseason baseball.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ANGELS +1.5 (+110) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer the Over than a side in this contest.
That said, L.A.’s hitting splits against left-handed pitching are around league average and Valdez only got a win over the Angels in their last meeting because of enormous run support. In fact, Valdez’s FIP vs. L.A. Sept. 10 was his highest of the year for any start and his EV was the fourth-highest.
Houston holds an edge in the three most important phases of the game but that’s accounted for in the pricing and the ANGLES +1.5 (+110) is the only way I’d play it. Again, I much prefer the total in this game.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 8.5 (-135) because neither starter has looked good against their respective opponent and L.A.’s bullpen has really struggled this month. The way I envision this game playing out is the Angels get an early lead on Valdez then the Astros storm back vs. an L.A. bullpen that’s in the bottom 10 of xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September.
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