The Houston Astros (70-48) and Kansas City Royals (50-67) meet Tuesday night for an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch to continue a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Framber Valdez is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 8-3 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 84 1/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Struggled over back-to-back starts in early July but has since notched a 3.30 ERA in 5 starts.
- Makes this start after back-to-back 100-pitch games.
LHP Daniel Lynch is the projected starter for the Royals. He is 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 31 2/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Owns a 2.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over his last 4 starts. But that stretch has been aided by a .254 batting average on balls in play and an 88.7% left-on-base rate.
Astros at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Royals +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-122) | Royals +1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Astros 7, Royals 5
Money line (ML)
Kansas City snapped a four-game skid with a 7-6 win in Monday’s series opener.
Valdez and the talented Houston offense give the visiting Astros the considerable edge in looking to bounce back Tuesday. But the money line price on Houston is too aggressive: PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
K.C. has been blown out frequently of late, and the Royals have the lesser bullpen in this matchup.
The Astros own an .835 OPS over their last 35 road games.
On a wind-out night, the ground-balling Valdez gets a marginal boost over the fly-balling Lynch.
HOUSTON -1.5 (-122) figures as the best-value side in this one.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings in Kansas City.
The Royals are at their best against lefty pitchers, and they roll in with some confidence after a win in the series opener. Both bullpens may be overrated a bit due to low ERA figures of late. The expected-ERA numbers don’t jive, and there are some quality-of-contact metrics that swing the other way.
On a warm, humid night, breeze-out-to-left night at Kauffman Stadium, the price is right on betting the OVER 9.5 (-120) on Tuesday.
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