The Houston Astros (70-47) meet the Kansas City Royals (49-67) Monday night for an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch to open a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 5-6 with a 4.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 through 68 2/3 IP spanning 16 games (15 starts).
- Despite a clunker against the Los Angeles Dodgers two starts back, Odorizzi has pitched well since mid-June. He owns a 3.95 ERA over his last nine starts.
- Draws a K.C. club which is at a platoon disadvantage vs. right-handers with a .673 OPS.
RHP Carlos Hernandez is the projected starter for the Royals. He is 3-1 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 across 46 IP over 17 games (five starts).
- Has logged a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last three starts despite facing the Chicago White Sox twice and the improved New York Yankees once.
- Owns a 4.03 ERA over 44 2/3 career innings at Kauffman Stadium.
Astros at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-102) | Royals +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Astros 7, Royals 5
Money line (ML)
Houston has had an up-and-down month so far. The Astros went just 2-5 over their first 7 games in August but are 4-1 since. Houston allowed just 7 runs over those last five games.
Kansas City has lost four straight games and is just 4-11 over its last 15. The Royals notched a .596 OPS over that stretch which has put pressure on a second-tier pitching staff.
Respect the public on both sides of this risk/reward equation, though. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
K.C. has been blown out frequently of late, and the Royals have the lesser bullpen in this matchup. The Houston-to-L.A.-to-K.C. trip makes for some caution but the Astros have been quite good in their mid-trip openers. Houston has won five straight series openers in the second or third stop on road trips.
HOUSTON -1.5 (-102) isn’t a full-unit play, but it’s the best on the board for a game the public looks to have a bead.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings in Kansas City.
Both starters have some recent trends built a bit too much on difficult-to-reproduce marginal rates (low batting average on balls in play, etc.). The total is up there, but on a warm, humid night in Kansas City, the price is right on betting the OVER 10.5 (+100).
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