The Houston Astros (46-28) start a four-game series with the Detroit Tigers (32-42) Thursday at Comerica Park with first pitch coming at 7:10 p.m. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 5-4 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 70 1/3 IP over 12 starts and 2 relief appearances.
Garcia has gone 5-1 in his last seven starts, most recently pitching June 18 going 7 innings allowing 1 ER against the White Sox. He tied his season-high with 8 K in that outing.
He has appeared in one game against the Tigers in his career, pitching 4 1/3 innings while allowing 0 ER and recording 7 K.
RHP Jose Urena is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. He is 2-7 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 65 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
Urena has really struggled lately, losing his last three starts and allowing 17 ER in his last 11 IP. He’s struck out just 6 batters and walked 8 in that span.
He is 0-1 with a 1.59 ERA in one start against the Astros in his career.
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Astros at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -2.5 (+105) | Tigers +2.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 7, Tigers 3
Money line (ML)
The Astros have won 10 straight games, nine of which were by at least two runs. They’re on an absolute tear, sweeping the Rangers, White Sox and Orioles since June 15. The Tigers have won three straight, but Houston is scorching hot right now.
The money line of -225 is a bit too chalky for me, so I would PASS here, but the spread provides a good value with the Astros favored.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Not only have the Astros won 10 games in a row, but they covered the spread in each of those games. They lead MLB in runs and hits, and own the lowest strikeout rate in the league, while allowing the eighth-fewest runs in baseball, too.
Bet the ASTROS -2.5 (+105) to cover the spread and beat the Tigers easily. Urena’s struggles and low strikeout rate don’t bode well for Detroit.
Over/Under (O/U)
During the Astros’ 10-game win streak, the total has gone over eight times. They’ve scored at least seven runs seven times in that stretch while limiting their opponents to three or fewer runs nine times.
The Tigers will need to score a few runs to help push the run total up, but I like the OVER 9.5 (-115) tonight in Detroit.
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