The Houston Astros (48-33) travel to Progressive Field Thursday to start a four-game series with the Cleveland Indians (42-35) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston was just swept in a three-game home series against the Baltimore Orioles to extend its losing streak to four games. The Astros have lost two straight series to the Orioles and Detroit Tigers.
Cleveland has lost four of its last five games and two straight series against the Tigers and at the Minnesota Twins.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
RHP Framber Valdez makes his seventh start of the season for the Astros. Valdez is 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K Saturday at the Detroit Tigers.
RHP J.C. Meija is on the hill for the Indians. Meija is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 across five starts and three relief appearances in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Cleveland’s 4-1 win at the Minnesota Twins last Thursday.
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Astros at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-115) | Indians +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 5, Indians 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ASTROS (-190) for a half unit even though we are getting the worst of the number because “sharp” line movement has pushed Houston from a -165 opening line favorite to the current number.
However, Cleveland is just 15-16 vs. left-handed starters this season and the Indians lineup ranks in the bottom-10 of the majors against left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Furthermore, Valdez has been lights out this season grading in the 85th percentile or better in expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, barrel rate and BB%.
Also, Valdez was sensational in the month of June with a 4-1 record and 2.10 ERA with all five of his outings deemed quality starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Astros -1.5 (-115) isn’t a big enough payout for how poorly their lineup has been hitting over the past week.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both starters allow fewer than 1 home run per nine innings and the weather forecast is predicting 14 mph winds blowing in from centerfield.
Moreover, the Astros-Indians total opened up at a flat-9 and has been moved down to the current number despite more than 80% of the action is on the Over (according to Pregame.com). It’s a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
Lastly, Valdez has been dominant so far this season and looks to be Houston’s most reliable starter and if Meija gets into trouble for Cleveland, he’ll at least be able to turn the ball over to an Indians bullpen that has the best xFIP in the league.
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