The Houston Astros (69-38) continue their 4-game series at Progressive Field Friday with the Cleveland Guardians (54-51). First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston shut out Cleveland in the series opener 6-0 as Astros’ ace SP Justin Verlander pitched 6 scoreless innings and RF Chas McCormick went 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBIs.
Season series: Houston leads 3-1.
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Astros at Guardians projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Hunter Gaddis
Valdez is 9-4 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 128 2/3 IP over 20 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 5-4 home loss to the Seattle Mariners Saturday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Guardians: 1 start, a 7-3 home win May 24 with 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
Gaddis is making his MLB debut Friday.
- 2022 minor league: 5-3 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 in 86 1/3 IP over 16 starts and 1 relief appearance for Cleveland’s Double- and Triple-A affiliates.
- Gaddis is Cleveland’s 37th-ranked team prospect, per FanGraphs.
Astros at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Guardians +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (-125) | Guardians +1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Astros at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Guardians 2
Money line
PASS.
The Astros (-220) is the right side, but far too expensive for an outright wager. I’d entertain throwing Houston’s ML into a parlay with another similarly priced line for a better payout.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET a HALF-UNIT on the ASTROS -1.5 (-125) because I hate paying a tax for a RL favorite.
But, the Guardians +1.5 (+102) are just 10-12 RL as home underdogs and struggle at the plate against left-handed pitching. Cleveland’s lineup is 28th in hard-hit rate, 29th in wRC+ and wOBA and last in ISO, per FanGraphs.
Over/Under
BET a HALF-UNIT on the UNDER 8.5 (-108) because the Astros are 14-30 O/U as road favorites and the Guardians are terrible vs. left-handed pitching.
Also, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market. Roughly 85% of the money is on the Under whereas nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Over, per Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the cash column since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than your average Joe.
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