The Houston Astros (56-37) wrap up their three-game series with the host Chicago White Sox (55-36) Sunday at Guaranteed Rate Field with a 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match of the set as these teams split the first two meetings in lopsided fashion with Houston crushing Chicago 7-1 Friday and the White Sox raking the Astros 10-1 Saturday.
Season series: Astros lead 5-1.
LHP Framber Valdez makes his 10th start for the Astros. Valdez is 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 6 BB and 5 K in Houston’s 8-7 victory over the New York Yankees last Sunday.
- Valdez won his only career start against the White Sox June 19 with a stat line of 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Houston’s 7-3 victory.
LHP Carlos Rodon is on the hill for the White Sox. Rodon is 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 13.0 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 8 K July 6 at the Minnesota Twins.
- Rodon took a no-decision in Chicago’s 2-1 loss on the road to the Astros June 18 with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3H, 3 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 90 at-bats with a .222/.271/.300 slash line, 22/6 K/BB, 2 HR and 6 RBIs.
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Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-190) | White Sox -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
White Sox 7, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
This would be considered a “good spot” for the WHITE SOX (-125) who have an 18-8 record vs. lefty starters this season and a 32-15 record at home.
Furthermore, while both starters have pitched very well this year, and both lineups rank at the top of the league in advanced hitting metrics against left-handed pitching, the White Sox’s bullpen is far more reliable.
For instance, Chicago’s relievers rank in the top 5 of WAR, xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA while the Astros relievers are 18th or worse in all of those categories.
Also, there has been 15 cents on the dollar worth of line movement on BetMGM‘s opening number in favor of Chicago and, according to pregame.com, more than 75% of the cash wagered is on the White Sox’s money line.
BET the WHITE SOX (-125) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the WHITE SOX -1.5 (+155) for a one-third unit because Chicago has the highest cover rate as a home favorite this season at 25-17 ATS and five of the six Astros-White Sox meetings this year have been decided by at least 4 runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because the situational trends are pointing in both directions as the White Sox play more to the Under at home and the Astros play more to the Over on the road.
The same can be true about the starters since Houston has a 6-3 O/U record when Valdez starts and Chicago is 5-10 O/U when Rodon is on the bump.
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