The Houston Astros (56-36) meet the Chicago White Sox (54-36) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston beat Chicago in the series opener 7-1 with Astros starting RHP Lance McCullers Jr. tossing 7 frames, allowing just 1 earned run on 2 hits and 2 walks with 10 strikeouts.
Season series: Astros lead 5-0.
RHP Jake Odorizzi is Houston’s projected starter. Odorizzi is 3-4 with a 3.61 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 over 10 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K vs. the New York Yankees July 9.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster: 106 at-bats with a .283/.327/.377 slash line, 34/6 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.
RHP Lucas Giolito is on the mound for the White Sox. Giolito is 7-6 with a 4.15 ERA (104 IP, 48 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 8-3, with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 9 at the Baltimore Orioles last Saturday.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 65 at-bats with a .231/.311/.477 slash line, 10/7 K/BB, 4 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:49 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | White Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+150) | White Sox +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Astros 7, White Sox 4
Money line (ML)
I’m BETTING the ASTROS (-105) for 1 unit since I think this is a case of “the wrong team favored” because Houston has dominated Chicago this year and Odorizzi’s pitching peripherals vs. current White Sox batters are far more impressive than Giolito’s against active Astros hitters.
First of all, Houston has outscored Chicago 34-9 this season and the Astros are 43-22 vs. teams with a winning record this season while the White Sox are 16-25 against teams above .500.
Second, Odorizzi has a 1.73 FIP vs. current White Sox batters with a .307 expected wOBA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 88.6 mph exit velocity.
While Giolito has a 7.87 FIP with a .381 expected wOBA, 13.3% strikeout rate and 91.6 mph exit velocity vs. current Astros batters.
Also, Houston is 34-20 vs. righty starters (Chicago is 36-28 against righties) and the Astros’ lineup is either first or second in several hitting metrics against right-handed pitching such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K.
Finally, the Astros are 7-3 overall as a road underdog this season with by far the highest margin of victory (plus-3.3 runs) and is cheap in this spot because Giolito is a much higher profile starter.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit – if at all – because Houston has beaten Chicago by at least 4 runs in four meetings this season and the White Sox are 1-4 ATS as a home underdog this year.
However, I’d much rather play the Astros straight-up because they are a slight dog on the money line but a favorite on the run line so the oddsmakers think this is a coin-flip matchup.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+100) for a half unit because these teams have a combined 16-11-1 O/U record when these starters are on the mound, the market has bet the total up to a flat-9 from the 8.5-run opener and the Over has cashed in four of the last five Astros-White Sox meetings.
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