The Chicago White Sox (54-35) host the Houston Astros (55-36) Friday for the start of their three-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Astros lead 4-0.
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. is on the rubber for the Astros. McCullers is 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 14 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 8 K July 8 vs. the Oakland Athletics.
- McCullers picked up a win vs. the White Sox, 8-2, June 20 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster: 52 at-bats with a .269/.356/.385 slash line, 15/7 K/BB, 2 HR and 5 RBIs.
RHP Dylan Cease is Chicago’s projected starter. Cease is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA (92 IP, 42 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Chicago’s 7-5 win at the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.
- Cease lost at the Astros earlier this season (June 17) with a stat line of 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 10-2 defeat.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 31 at-bats with a .258/.410/.516 slash line, 7/7 K/BB, 2 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | White Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+110) | White Sox +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
White Sox 7, Astros 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the WHITE SOX (+125) for a half unit because I “like” the value in their run line, and this is a better spot for Chicago.
For instance, Cease has pitched much better at home this season, and the White Sox have the second-best home record in the majors. Cease is 4-0 at home this season with a 1.81 home ERA (6.27 road ERA), 1.05 home WHIP (1.48 road WHIP) and a 3.4 K/BB rate (2.7 K/BB rate on the road).
Also, McCullers’ home and road splits are identical this season, but typically he’s far less effective on the road.
For his career, McCullers has won 47.1% of his road games with a 4.74 road ERA (2.57 home ERA), 1.45 road WHIP (1.09 home WHIP) and 2.3 K/BB rate on the road (3.2 K/BB rate at home).
Furthermore, the White Sox have a pretty decisive edge in relief pitching, and Chicago’s lineup is in the top-10 of wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and OPS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the WHITE SOX +1.5 (-135) heavier than or instead of Chicago’s money line for the aforementioned rationale and because this is a fair price point for a run-and-a-half worth of insurance.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-120) for a quarter unit only because I prefer the Chicago sides more than the total.
However, the White Sox have gone Over in five of Cease’s past six starts, the Astros are 8-5 O/U in games McCullers has started this season and 24-17-2 O/U on the road.
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