The Houston Astros (44-28) and Baltimore Orioles (23-49) will continue their three-game series on Tuesday night, with first pitch from Camden Yards coming at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 7-2 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 91 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
In his last six starts, Greinke has three outings of at least eight innings with only one earned run allowed.
However, in his last two starts, he only pitched 8 2/3 innings combined and allowed seven total runs with just six strikeouts. In his career against the Orioles, he is 2-2 with a 5.32 ERA in nine games (seven starts).
RHP Jorge Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. He is 2-8 with a 5.95 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 65 IP over 14 starts.
The Orioles have lost six of Lopez’s last seven starts, as he’s allowed at least three runs in five of those seven games.
He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his last three outings and has just three starts this season of more than five innings. In his one career start against the Astros, Lopez allowed six runs in 2 1/3 innings.
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Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:48 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Orioles +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-125) | Orioles +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Astros 7, Orioles 4
Money line (ML)
The Astros have been on a tear lately, winning their last eight games. The Orioles are trending in the opposite direction, dropping nine of their last 10, including their last three. They were crushed by Houston on Monday night, 10-2, and I think the Astros will take Game 2, as well.
Houston isn’t a great value on the money line, but make a small wager on the ASTROS (-200) to win outright.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This is where you’ll find more upside with Houston. Eight of their last nine wins have come by at least two runs, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS in that same span, which makes this a very clear trend. I like the ASTROS -1.5 (-125) to cover the spread and win fairly easily on the road with Greinke taking the mound.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over/Under is 9.5 runs tonight, and both of these teams have been hitting the Over pretty consistently. The total has gone Over in seven of Houston’s last eight, and in six of the Orioles’ last seven.
Bet the OVER 9.5 (+100) tonight, especially with Lopez on the mound for Baltimore.
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