The Houston Astros (43-28) and Baltimore Orioles (23-48) open a three-game series Monday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 25 1/3 IP spanning seven games (six starts).
Odorizzi tossed 4 scoreless innings of bulk relief in his last outing, Tuesday against the Texas Rangers.
LHP Keegan Akin is the projected starter for the Orioles. He is 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 29 2/3 IP over eight games (four starts).
Akin is making his fifth straight appearance as a starter. He coughed up 8 ER on 8 H and 3 BB in his last outing with 5 2/3 IP against the Cleveland Indians Wednesday.
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Astros at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Orioles +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-110) | Orioles +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 6, Orioles 4
Money line (ML)
The Astros head into this series on a seven-game win streak. The Houston offense has fueled the club going 16-4 over the last 20 games. Over that stretch, the Astros have averaged 6.65 runs per game on the strength of a .905 OPS.
Baltimore lost two of three games in a home series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Orioles pitching was tagged for 17 runs over the last two games of that series, and Baltimore now owns a 6.96 ERA since June 5.
The Houston offense leads the league with an .804 road OPS, but despite being plus-50 in run differential, the Astros are just 17-15 over 32 road tilts. The Astros are at their best against lefties and so are the Orioles. Tag the visitors with an advantage in the platoon category in Monday’s pitching matchup.
Both starting pitchers figure as better than what’s indicated by their surface ERAs. Odorizzi in particular has been hurt by a low 60.9% strand rate when runners are on base.
HOUSTON (-160) offers decent value.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The run-line odds bring this game into pick ’em territory. On a warm, humid evening with a breeze out to right-center field, and with a projected run total of 10.5, peg the ASTROS -1.5 (-110) as having enough value to include in a mix with the above ML play.
Example: 3/4-unit ML, 1/4-unit run line on the conservative side; 1/4-unit ML, 3/4-unit run line on the aggressive side,
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS on a well-made total.
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