Hogs have 41 percent chance to beat LSU on Saturday

Arkansas isn’t favored to beat LSU in Baton Rouge on Saturday, especially after the Tigers ran with Alabama.

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Louisiana State University has already fired its coach. Ed Orgeron is finishing the season as coach of LSU football and then hitting the bricks. His team has been a disappointment at 4-5 this season and have lost four of their last five.

They’re still favored over Arkansas on Saturday.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives LSU a 59% chance to beat Arkansas when the teams meet up in Baton Rouge on Saturday. The Razorbacks are the No. 33 in the FPI, while LSU is No. 31. In fact, despite Arkansas’ win over Mississippi State in Week 10, the Hogs dropped two spots. LSU, which lost to Alabama by six points, went up five. The Hogs were leapfrogged.

Long-time watchers of the SEC know LSU always has beasts on the field. They’re big, fast and strong. But talent hasn’t always equaled success. That’s certainly the case this year. But talent, too, means teams aren’t going to get the benefit of the doubt more often than not simply because, as the Tigers showed against the Crimson Tide, when it’s on, it’s on.

Arkansas has never fared well in Death Valley. The Razorbacks own just three wins Baton Rouge since joining the SEC in 1991. The last win came in 2015. It also came a week after the Tigers had lost to Alabama the week before, ending their undefeated season.

This Arkansas team is similar to that one. This LSU team is worse than that one. Still, those numbers.

The FPI gives a slight edge to LSU because the game is at home, which makes sense. ESPN’s proprietary algorithm also strongly prefers the Tigers defense, ranking them at No. 36 in the country to Arkansas’ 60th. LSU has the edge on special teams, too, 28th versus 69th. The Razorbacks are considered the superior offense at No. 20, but LSU is No. 37. Smaller gap.

An Arkansas win would take the happy feelings Razorbacks’ faithful have after Saturday’s 31-28 win over Mississippi State and amplify them. Missouri may be Arkansas’ rivalry game now, but LSU is still Arkansas’ No. 1 SEC rival.