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Making a determination about which team has the edge between Arkansas and Mississippi State on Saturday is a matter of perspective.
If one is prone to preferring the Bulldogs, he or she can point to the statistics that show Mississippi State as the No. 4 rushing defense in FBS.
If one is prone to preferring the Razorbacks, he or she can point to the statistics that show Arkansas as the No. 4 rushing offense in FBS.
Rock, meet hard place.
The Hogs and Dogs are similar in 2021. Eerily similar.
| Years coaches have been on job | 2021 Record | Wins over ranked teams | Reg. Season record last two years | Rush offense rank | Rush defense rank | Passing offense rank | Passing defense rank | |
| Arkansas | 2 | 5-3 | 2 | 8-10 | 4th in FBS, 2nd in SEC | 85th in FBS, 10th in SEC | 85th in FBS, 10th in SEC | 8th in FBS, 2nd in SEC |
| Mississippi State | 2 | 5-3 | 2 | 8-10 | 130th in FBS, 14th in SEC | 4th in FBS, 2nd in SEC | 4th in FBS, 1st in SEC | 61st in FBS, 9th in SEC |
Almost every single box is identical except for the ones that are practically inversed.
Mike Leach and Sam Pittman both took over prior to the 2020 season. Pittman had to rebuild the Dumpster fire that was the Chad Morris era. Leach had to step in for Dan Mullen, who had led the Bulldogs to tremendous heights in recent years. Since they’ve arrived, they’re identical in record and identical in the types of teams they’ve beaten this year. The difference is Mississippi State’s wins over ranked teams have come more recently than Arkansas’, thus the Bulldogs placing inside the College Football Playoff rankings.
Arkansas is excellent at running the football. Quarterback KJ Jefferson is the second most dynamic passing-running signal-caller in the SEC behind Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, but he is definitely more efficient on the ground. Mississippi State’s Will Rogers never runs, but he set the record for highest completion percentage in an SEC game last year.
The Razorbacks excel at stopping the pass, but can’t stop the run against quality running teams. The Bulldogs excel at stopping the run, but aren’t great (but aren’t terrible) against the pass. It suggests one team is going to have to do something outside its usual comfort zone to gain a true edge on Saturday.
If Jefferson and the Arkansas receivers and tight ends are effective, they can hold off the Bulldogs and perhaps even jump into the College Football Playoff rankings next week.
But if Leach and Mississippi State offense gets the ground game working, the visitors to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium could leave with bowl eligibility in hand.