There must be something in the air that has Chicago Bears fans all riled up about tight end Cole Kmet lately, because he has been the talk of the fanbase over the last few weeks.
Whether it’s due to his participation in the player-led tight end camp, officially dubbed “Tight End University” last month or Bears Twitter randomly questioning if he can actually ascend to the next level due to concerns surrounding his separation rate, Kmet has many fans and experts feeling great about his potential while some feel he may not be the guy to bring stability to the tight end position. Based off recent history, though, Kmet should see a major uptick in production during his second season.
Kmet was drafted by the Bears in the 2020 NFL draft at No. 43 overall out of the University of Notre Dame. He was the first tight end off the board and filled a gaping hole at the position, along with veteran Jimmy Graham, who was signed as a free agent earlier in the season.
Rookie tight ends don’t normally make an immediate impact in the NFL right away and Kmet was no exception. Playing behind Graham for much of the season, he saw the field sparingly as he worked to get up to speed in head coach Matt Nagy’s system.
Eventually, Nagy found ways to utilize the 6-foot 6, 262-pound rookie later in the season as Kmet became more involved in the offensive gameplan. His snaps increased from 20-30 to 55-65 as the year went on, reducing Graham’s role. Kmet’s receiving totals reflected that as well as he had 44 targets, totaling 28 catches for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but 20 of those catches for 149 yards came in the team’s final five games.
While he flashed in the passing game, his run blocking was vital to the Bears’ success as well. Over that same five-game stretch, Kmet was on the field for 88.4% of the offensive snaps as he helped pave the road for running back David Montgomery. The young bruising back ran for 423 yards in that same stretch, with Kmet helping lead the way in many of those runs late in the season.
After seeing the flashes of potential, can Kmet take the leap towards becoming a top-15 player at the position in his second season? It turns out it’s a lot more common for tight ends to accomplish that task than you think.
Since 2017, a significant number of tight ends have seen a major uptick in production between their first and second seasons. From high draft picks to mid-round selections, many tight ends played a much bigger role in their respective team’s passing game in their second season in the league. Using data from Pro Football Reference, I looked at 12 tight ends drafted between 2016 and 2019 to compare and contrast their production from their first two seasons: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Evan Engram, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurts, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson.
The results are in favor of Kmet significantly building on his rookie output.
Using this data and looking specifically at targets, receptions and yards, all but one player (Engram) exceeded their rookie totals. Many did so by a wide margin. The player with the biggest jump was Kittle, however, who took the NFL by storm in his second season with 88 catches for 1,377 yards.
That type of leap isn’t something you see every year, but seeing players like Njoku, Gesicki, and Goedert all essentially double their output from their rookie years should give Bears fans hope that Kmet can do the same with more involvement in the offense. On average, this group was targeted 28 more times, caught more than 19 receptions, had more than 254 yards with one more touchdown than their previous year. So where does that leave Kmet in all of this?
If we were to apply the average increase found in the data above to Kmet’s production from 2020, he would be in line for 72 targets, 47 catches and 497 yards and three touchdowns, or roughly what his teammate Graham produced last season outside of his scores.
If you use the average percentage increase instead, the numbers look similar, but differ in some spots. Kmet would have 75 targets for 50 catches, 401 yards, and nearly four touchdowns.
It’s not the seismic change players like Kittle or Hooper saw, but it shows stable growth that nearly every other player highlighted had in their second season. We can even take the formula back further and look at an old familiar face to see how his first and second seasons stacked up.
Back in 2007, former Bears tight end Greg Olsen had a slow start to his NFL career. The former first-round draft pick was targeted 66 times, catching 39 passes for 391 yards and two touchdowns. Like Kmet, Olsen split time with a veteran as well in Desmond Clark, who saw more targets, catches, yards and touchdowns as the team’s starter.
But things changed the next season, when Olsen emerged as the go-to tight end. His production increased across the board, seeing 82 targets for 54 catches, 574 yards and five touchdowns while Clark played second fiddle.
Olsen of course became one of the best tight ends of the 2010s, but like the players previously listed, he too started slow and saw a major bump his second season in the league. He even had to share targets with an established veteran, just like Kmet.
There are many factors that go into whether a player is going to take the next step in his career or not. These numbers only tell a portion of the story when it comes to young tight ends in recent history. But with more involvement in the offense, the rapport he’s building with his quarterbacks, and the added confidence after completing one year in the league, things could be aligning for Kmet to smash his rookie totals this fall. He’s a prime breakout candidate for a reason.
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