There’s nothing more back-breaking for an NFL defense than perfectly covering a third-down play, only to see the opposing quarterback sneak out of the pocket and scramble his way to the first-down sticks.
Such a play can be utterly deflating to a defense, all while breathing life into an otherwise undeserving offense. The gains made by the top NFL scramblers are significant, leading many Cowboys fans to wonder, why not us?
The health of Dak Prescott likely comes to mind immediately. After watching his foot nearly come unattached in 2020, it’s understandable the Cowboys aren’t champing at the bit to expose their franchise signal-caller to added contact.
While Dallas was able to continue their winning ways without Prescott during his four game absence in 2022, the offensive production fell off considerably.
With an average EPA of -0.008 during the four weeks of Cooper Rush at the helm, a case could be made the offense did more harm than good (20th ranked offense) and it was the defense who actually won the games.
But there’s a difference between protecting Prescott and needlessly holding back the offense. Prescott scrambles don’t have to be overtly dangerous and if scrambles can be designed and coached correctly, they can elevate the Cowboys offense to new heights in 2023.
A thread on quarterback scrambling in the 2022-23 season:
Looking at just scrambles, we can see that most quarterbacks that scramble generate a positive EPA doing so. However there are types of survivorship bias in play here as we will discuss (1/3) pic.twitter.com/tgLLKbxMZv
— SumerSports (@sumersports) June 1, 2023
Sumer Sports recently looked at scramble EPA and found that in a field of 29 QBs, Prescott was dead last in 2022. He was only one of four who offered a negative total, coming in behind some wildly pedestrian names.
While some of the top producers like Justin Fields, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts take a ton of physical abuse from their scrambles, players like Geno Smith (sixth) and Patrick Mahomes (third) avoid contact more often than not.
Scrambling doesn’t have to be dangerous.
Designing plays that get Prescott outside of the pocket not only helps with any pass-protection concerns the Cowboys may have, but it also opens up clearer lanes for passing downfield. It essentially offers Prescott an option between running and passing and doesn’t inherently involve him getting hit any more often than he is already.
QBs are in no way obligated to get tackled on scrambles. Patrick Mahomes has virtually written the book on not getting needlessly hit when scrambling up field.
Not all situations are ideal scramble situations either. Against man coverage, average scramble EPA sits at 0.726 while against zone it’s 0.295. Man coverage is still the dominant call on third downs in the NFL so Dallas would be well served to do majority of the scrambling on third downs when the opportunities are at their best.
Most will agree, since his ankle injury, Prescott has not been the same runner he used to be. But Joe Burrow (seventh) and Aaron Rodgers (10th) aren’t exactly explosive runners themselves yet they still found a way to finish in the top-10 in scramble EPA.
Clearly there is survivorship bias to consider with these numbers since sacks aren’t considered failed scrambles. But the point remains, Prescott should be more of a scramble threat and smart running could elevate the Dallas offense to new heights without increasing risk to Prescott.
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