It’s Super Bowl Sunday and once again the Dallas Cowboys and their faithful following are on the outside looking in, dreaming dreams of what could have been. But like all failures in life, the experience can serve as a learning experience from which to grow.
Super Bowl LVII features two of the most high-profile coaches in the NFL. Kansas City’s Andy Reid is a legend in the game. He’s taken two different cities to the Super Bowl as head coach and proves one can simultaneously be a successful head coach and play-caller.
Perhaps the Cowboys have already taken note.
Cowboys have yet to name next OC. Is there any chance the right hire would call plays instead of Mike McCarthy?
"No. Oh no. No," Jerry Jones told me. "I think Mike’s the coordinator. Whoever he brings in is the assistant to him in the coordination. But Mike is coordinator."
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) February 3, 2023
On the other side of the field is Nick Sirianni. The boisterous villain in Philadelphia has quickly made a name for himself in the NFL. In just two seasons, he turned the Eagles into a contender. His team is loaded with talent and just one win away from earning the highest honors.
Are these coaches just lucky or are they doing something right?
As with nearly all successes in life, the answer is a little bit of both. Would Reid be in the position he’s in right now if it wasn’t for finding the best quarterback in the game at pick No. 10 in the 2017 draft? Probably not, but Reid’s the guy who found Patrick Mahomes, the bulk of the credit still probably lands at his feet.
Would Sirianni be this successful if his general manager, Howie Roseman, didn’t load the roster with talent? Probably not, but Cowboys fans know all too well, the most talented team on paper means jack squat if the head coach can’t maximize said talent. Sirianni’s bite finally caught up to his bark and with all due respect, that’s no small task. He’s a good head coach.
What are these coaches doing specifically, that make them successful? What decisions are they making that McCarthy and company should be paying attention to?
While it’s nearly impossible to quantify the value of decisions made during the week in planning, preparation, and development, in-game decision-making can certainly be measured.
All NFL head coaches are faced with pivotal decisions throughout each game. Measuring those is a fair way to grade their impact (both good and bad) and give the Cowboys something to learn from and apply in 2023.
It just so happens, over the past two seasons both Reid and Sirianni rank in the top-10 in win probability added over expected through in-game decision making (per SumerSports).
Both coaches in the Super Bowl rank towards the top of the league at adding in-game win probability to their teams over the past two seasons pic.twitter.com/j7LVQZQdTB
— SumerSports (@sumersports) January 30, 2023
Just outside the top-10 McCarthy lands at No. 11. McCarthy stands out in his 2-point decision making and in second-half timeout usage.
Reid separates from the coaching pack is with excellent second-half clock management. Sirianni’s strength is clearly his fourth-down decision making.
With 32 fourth down attempts in 2022, the Eagles are fourth-highest in fourth down attempts. Their 68.8 conversion percentage is also fourth most. Sirianni has attempted and converted fourth downs at a high rate and it’s had an enormous impact in win probability.
Reid has been more conservative in his approach. He’s operating at a highly efficient 75 percent conversion rate, but with only 12 attempts this season, he’s left a lot of meat on the bone.
Nick Sirianni has been aggressive on 4th down this season, going for it in 21 of 27 situations where the numbers suggest doing so by at least 1% in win probability.
Andy Reid has been more risk averse, going for it just 7 out of 26 times in these scenarios.#KCvsPHI | #SBLVII pic.twitter.com/xAECmm5zpz
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 8, 2023
The idea isn’t just to recklessly “go for it” on fourth downs. As the chart directly above suggests, it’s about probabilities. If the decision doesn’t yield an uptick in win probability, then a punt or kick is the logical answer. Playing the odds is a way to find sustained success and both Sirianni and McCarthy are in the top-10 in this category.
While it’s comforting to see McCarthy raking in the top-half in adding overall in-game win probability, there’s still plenty of room for growth. Sirianni’s 83.8 WPAOE is roughly twice as high as McCarthy’s 39.7.
The Cowboys can use the Super Bowl as a learning opportunity. By observing what separates these two last teams from the rest of the NFL, they can identify where they need to improve themselves. One area with room for growth appears to be in-game decision making.
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