Here’s what SP+ predicts for the Florida-Texas matchup in Week 11

The SP+ prediction for the Florida-Texas matchup in Austin this coming weekend strongly favors the home team.

Florida football opened up its brutal second-half stretch of schedule with a loss to the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday, dropping the Gators to 4-4 overall this season and 2-3 against fellow Southeastern Conference schools.

So that is one down and three to go, as far as top-25 teams lined up to face the Orange and Blue in November. Next up are the Texas Longhorns, who have made quite a statement in their first years as members of the SEC and currently hold the fifth spot in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his predictions for college football’s Week 11 slate, which favors the ‘Horns by 19.6 points over the Gators while giving Texas an 89% chance of winning and a projected final score of 37-18. Compare that with the initial spread for the game (UT, -21.5 points) for a difference of 1.9 between the two.

Billy Napier and Co. sit at No. 26 out of 134 FBS schools (11.5 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s road matchup while the home squad is second (28.7).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

How to watch Gators-Longhorns

Florida hits the road to face Texas in Austin on Saturday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for noon ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.