Here’s how Dak Prescott, Cowboys efficiency is setting the NFL standard

Dak Prescott has the Cowboys third down offense in rarefied air here in 2023. | From @ReidDHanson

In the NFL, games are often won or lost on third downs. While early downs are typically the most productive, it’s those critical third downs that make the difference between a drive stalling or a drive extending.

Dak Prescott has always been among the best in the league in this aspect. Since joining the Cowboys in 2016, he’s top-10 in both third down EPA and success rate on third downs. But here in 2023, he’s taking his third down prowess to new levels, averaging a jaw-dropping 0.553 adjusted EPA/play. It’s a number that’s 0.25 more than the No. 2 QB this season, and an output better than any QB has achieved in the last six seasons.

This isn’t the season something like this was supposed to happen. On a micro level, the Cowboys offense was undergoing a change in leadership. With Kellen Moore out, Mike McCarthy was finally able make the offense in his image. Growing pains were expected, and throughout the first five weeks, growing pains were experienced.

On a macro level, the NFL is shifting back to a two-high safety league. The bend-but-don’t break virus has been spreading throughout, as the Legion of Boom model fades into the background. Passing numbers are down across the league, and with it, many efficiency stats as well.

Despite fate’s best efforts to limit big plays and force offenses to dink and dunk their way down the field, Prescott and the Cowboys attack have found a way to post gaudy numbers without being needlessly reckless downfield.

Prescott has been opportunistic in 2023 and he’s often choosing to be most opportunistic on third downs.

As a team, the Cowboys are second in the NFL in their third down conversion rate. Considering how slowly they started the season, that’s a very impressive position to be 12 games into the season.

Will the good times keep rolling?

There’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Even with the increasingly difficult schedule, Prescott has been operating at peak levels within McCarthy’s system. It’s not smoke and mirrors but an every-down efficiency that can adapt to a variety of defensive schemes.

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