Well, it is official. The Philadelphia Eagles have named rookie Jalen Hurts as their starting quarterback for Week 14. With Carson Wentz struggling with ineffectiveness Doug Pederson turned to the rookie midway through last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers. Hurts provided a spark, hitting Jalen Reagor on a deep vertical route in the third quarter and throwing his first NFL touchdown pass in the fourth, but it was not enough to overcome a deficit at Lambeau Field.
Will his game be enough for what awaits him Sunday?
The Eagles make this switch at perhaps the most inopportune moment on their schedule. In Week 14 they’ll see a New Orleans Saints defense that has been a bit of a wrecking ball this season. Need evidence? Just a few weeks ago they demolished the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in the loss veteran passer Tom Brady turned in one of the worst statistical performances of his career. Brady posted an NFL passer rating of just 40.4 in the loss, his worst outing since the opening week of the 2003 season. In that game, a 31-0 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, Brady threw four interceptions and ESPN’s Tom Jackson would rail after the game that the Patriots — due to the trade of Lawyer Milloy — hated their coach.
New England would win the Super Bowl.
But this is 2020, and things have changed. The Saints are a tough defense, and they have forced bad games from quarterbacks not named Brady this season as well. As of Week 14 the Saints are ranked second in the league in Defensive DVOA. (Oh, and the Cardinals, who the Eagles play next week, are ranked 13th). Now it is true that the Saints get the statistical benefit of playing against a practice squad wide receiver a few weeks ago when the Denver Broncos were forced to turn to Kendall Hinton, but still, this is a good defense.
Two things of note, however, might illuminate a path for Hurts to have success against New Orleans Sunday.
First, the Saints as of last week were leading the league in playing “2-Man,” or Cover 2, Man Underneath:
Looking at 2-Man here (2-deep, man-under)
2-Man — highest % of coverage snaps
1. #Saints — 16.6%
2. #Giants — 14.0%
3. #Chiefs — 13.3%
4. #Broncos — 12.0%
5. #Cardinals — 11.9%— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) November 12, 2020
This coverage has two weak areas: Between the two deep safeties and deep along the sidelines. As luck would have it, deep along the sideline is where Hurts connected with his fellow rookie last week:
So, expect some shot plays in the vertical passing game. Hurts’ ability as a touch passer was a strength of his coming out of Oklahoma, and could be a factor on Sunday.
The other element that could be a factor in his favor against the Saints is his athleticism, but not the way you might think. The Saints have been very good at getting pressure on opposing passers this season. New Orleans has a Pressure Percentage of 25.4%, which is fifth-most in the league. They also have 36 quarterback sacks, third-most in the league.
Yet that has left them susceptible to plays in scramble drill situations, when the guys up front cannot finish the play and the quarterback is able to create off structure and/or outside of the pocket. Here’s Nick Mullens creating outside the pocket late in the down against the Saints:
Now here’s Teddy Bridgewater spinning away from multiple defenders before finding a receiver downfield in a scramble drill situation:
And wouldn’t you know it, that first touchdown pass of Hurts’ career came on a…scramble drill play:
Rookie QB Jalen Hurts is getting thrown into the deep end for his first career start. However, his touch in the downfield passing game against Cover 2 Man Under coverages, as well as his ability to create outside of the pocket in response to the Saints’ pressure game, could give him some opportunities to produce big plays in the passing game.