The timeline seemed to be pretty straightforward for Jimmy Garoppolo. His offseason shoulder surgery would put him on track to start throwing in late June or early July. That would give him time to throw for teams that could potentially vie for his services in the trade market. Once a team saw him throw and had him evaluated he was supposed to become a commodity again. There may be more to health equation than simply throwing on air in workouts though.
Dr. Nirav Pandya, an Associate Professor of UCSF Orthopedic Surgery, said in a radio hit on 95.7 the Game in San Francisco that Garoppolo’s health post-surgery will remain a question mark until he’s able to play in games. That first game may not be soon though.
“He’s right around four months post-surgery, which for most kinds of shoulder surgeries that quarterbacks get, you’ll start throwing,” Pandya said. “But it’s very slow progress. You’re kind of starting out with low repetition, low velocity, low distance over four-to-five weeks, increasing the number of reps and how hard you’re throwing. So I think, number one in the first several weeks of returning to throw, you’re looking at: is he developing soreness? Are his mechanics different, and what does his accuracy look like, particularly if he can get into scrimmages? And then the tough thing is that there’s throwing, and then there’s contact. And that contact comes more at six months typically with these injuries. So, number one they have to make sure he can complete the throwing program, and number two can he take contact?”
Team doctors can evaluate Garoppolo in the days following his workouts, but he’s missing vital time if he’s waiting six months until he first takes contact. Garoppolo had his surgery in early March, which puts him out for the entire preseason slate and has him first taking contact right as the season starts.
Any team that possibly wants Garoppolo to play would be taking a significant gamble since there’s no way of identifying how well his shoulder will hold up in a game situation.
Even if Garoppolo gets through his throwing program and teams feel good about what they see in that environment, Dr. Pandya said plenty of post-surgery evaluation still needs to take place.
“But I think the tough things is where you’re gonna see subtle changes in terms of how his shoulder may feel after his surgery, is when he’s in a game situation,” Pandya said. “You’re talking about is he gonna release a split second later? Is his accuracy on these long throws gonna be thrown off. So there is a little bit of a jump that he’d have to take, but I think the fact that number one, just seeing him throw will be good, and number two, looking at his mechanics. And three, is there soreness? Is he gonna have to take some days off because his shoulder isn’t responding?”
This doesn’t necessarily mean Garoppolo won’t have any suitors, but if that timeline is correct it’s hard to imagine a team simply plugging Garoppolo in as their starter in Week 1, even if his shoulder is healthy enough to get through training camp. They’ll want to see how that shoulder reacts the first time he’s landed on by a defensive end.
There was already going to be a diminished trade market for Garoppolo following the surgery which left the 49ers without any suitors. Now any team that did want to trade for him may be reluctant to give up an asset knowing he may be one hit away from being out for an extended period of time. This could push the 49ers to release him, which would make him an unrestricted free agent able to sign wherever he’d like.
Either way it’s unlikely we see Garoppolo play much in the preseason, and now it sounds like his readiness for the season opener could be in question as well.
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