There is a rather short list of what can be counted on in each new National Football League season.
The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys playing on Thanksgiving and QB Tom Brady‘s team competing in the Super Bowl are on there, of course. So is a worst-to-first success story in at least one of the league’s eight divisions.
Scope out these worst-to-first facts from 2003 – the season after the NFL realigned into its current eight four-team division format – through 2020 (a total of 18 seasons):
- Twenty-two teams went from fourth to first in a division for an average of 1.2 teams per season.
- There has been a worst-to-first turnaround team in 16 of those 18 seasons with 2014 and 2019 being the only exceptions.
- Exactly half (11) of those worst-to-first ascenders won four or fewer games the previous season.
- All but five of the 22 outhouse-to-penthouse teams have come from the NFC East (7 times), NFC South (6) and AFC West (4).
The Washington Football Team met all the above parameters in 2020, modestly improving from 3-13 in 2019 to 7-9 in 2020 but still winning the woebegone NFC East by a game. It was the franchise’s third worst-to-first ascension in the last nine seasons.
So which of the eight last-place finishers from 2020 are most likely to author a turnaround tale this season? Below, we rank the eight teams (with their current division-title odds) in order of least to most likely to go from worst to first in 2021 with NFL picks, predictions and best bets.
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 5 p.m. ET.