Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons odds, picks and predictions

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The Green Bay Packers (1-0) and Atlanta Falcons (1-0) meet Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Packers vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Packers are coming off a 38-20 win as 1-point underdogs at the Chicago Bears as the Over (41) cashed last Sunday. QB Jordan Love threw for 3 TDs and RB Aaron Jones rushed for a TD and caught another. Jones injured his hamstring on the 35-yard TD catch and is questionable for Sunday.

The Falcons covered the spread as 3.5-point home favorites with a 24-10 win vs. the Carolina Panthers as the Under (40.5) hit in Week 1. RB Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, caught a TD pass and broke off a 21-yard run that set up a 3-yard rushing TD from RB Tyler Allgeier.

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Packers at Falcons odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:42 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Packers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Falcons -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Packers +1.5 (-105) | Falcons -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 40 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Packers at Falcons key injuries

Packers

OL David Bakhtiari (rest, knee) questionable
RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) questionable
LB Quay Walker (concussion) questionable
WR Christian Watson (hamstring) questionable

Falcons

LB Troy Andersen (concussion) out
CB Jeff Okudah (foot) questionable

Packers at Falcons picks and predictions

Prediction

Falcons 20, Packers 17

Moneyline

The FALCONS (-130) confused many bettors when their regular season wins total rose to 8.5 in the offseason, even though they do have the easiest strength of schedule. While QB Desmond Ridder was underwhelming in Week 1 — throwing for just 115 yards and 1 TD — the defense looked as good as expected and held Carolina to just 10 points.

The market was skeptical about Love replacing QB Aaron Rodgers in the offseason. However, Packers support started pouring in after Love looked good in preseason and even moved Green Bay’s line from +2.5 to +1 at the Bears. While I do believe the Packers are better than we expected in the offseason, I’m not jumping on the Love bandwagon just yet.

Don’t overreact to Week 1. The Falcons are doing what we expected them to do, while Love may come back down to Earth after overperforming last time out.

BET FALCONS (-130).

Against the spread

While I do believe Atlanta will cover, it pains me to recommend Falcons -1.5 (-110) when Falcons +1.5 (-110) was available on Tuesday. If you like the Falcons and refuse to pay -130 on the moneyline, I would bet this spread now before it potentially goes up closer to kickoff.

LEAN FALCONS -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under

I like the idea of Atlanta’s defense continuing to play well while Love regresses and looks more like a QB on the road with limited experience. As long as Ridder doesn’t drastically improve Sunday, the combination of these factors should help the Under hit.

BET UNDER 40 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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