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If the Green Bay Packers offense is going to find regular success in 2023, it is going to require Year 2 leaps from at least one, but likely both, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The good news is that the second season for many wide receivers ends up being their breakout years.
In an article from Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, he writes that oftentimes, wide receivers underwhelm as rookies before making a “big leap” in their sophomore seasons. From there, those receivers who made that jump then gradually improved over the next few years. Since 2014, 28% of receivers have seen significant jumps in production in their second NFL seasons, and nearly 33% in Year 3.
Heath also adds that yards per route run as a rookie can be “extremely predictive” of future success. This efficiency metric, in particular, pertains to Watson, who ranked 11th among all receivers last season in this stat category, averaging 2.26 yards per route run, according to PFF.
Although the pads are yet to come on, the Packers’ offseason programs may have already provided us with a small glimpse into the potential growth that both Watson and Doubs have experienced as they embark on their second seasons. In part, these developmental leaps take place because the players are more comfortable with the playbook and their responsibilities. Matt LaFleur has commented that there is a night and day difference between Watson this year compared to last, while Doubs says that he is playing much faster.
During a red zone drill in the first minicamp practice, Doubs was able to create enough separation against Jaire Alexander in coverage and made a sliding catch in the back left corner of the end zone. Later on, Jordan Love connected with Watson a deep ball down the left sideline, where the nearest defender was Alexander. Following that practice, Alexander acknowledged that those plays probably aren’t happening this time a year ago, showcasing the progression that both players have had.
With Watson and Doubs now as the veterans in this Green Bay receiving room, they, of course, are going to be asked to do a lot more. This includes as leaders but also in their responsibilities and what they are asked to do on the football field, not only in total targets. At the NFL Owners’ meetings earlier this offseason, LaFleur said that, while refinement is still needed, he doesn’t believe that there is a route that Doubs can’t run. He also added that Watson’s route responsibilities and what he’s asked to do are going to grow as well. In short, because of this we will see each player running in a wider variety of routes this season, creating additional opportunities for each.
Along with a greater variance in the type of routes that each player is asked to run, more targets over the middle of the field, which should lead to YAC opportunities, will be more prevalent as it is a key aspect of the LaFleur offense. Versatility and speed are also hallmarks of this new-look Packers’ offense, which means a variety of different alignments being utilized around the formation, helping to generate mismatches and keep the defense off-balance. There will also be an emphasis on getting the Green Bay pass catchers the ball in space, where they can use that speed to make plays. All of this should take at least some of the playmaking burden off the shoulders of Watson and Doubs, with the LaFleur scheme doing some of the work for them.
Ultimately, there is no guarantee that Watson and Doubs are going to see significant jumps this season, and although things look promising now, both will have to carry that momentum through the rest of summer and into the season. However, for what it’s worth, the recipe and ingredients for a pair of Year 2 leaps from each player is there, which again, is a must for this offense.