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The Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-6, 13-2 West Coast) and Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-6, 15-0) meet in a key West Coast Conference tussle Saturday night. Tip-off from University Credit Union Pavilion will be at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Gonzaga is ranked No. 22 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. The Bulldogs covered as 4-point favorites in an 86-68 win over San Francisco at Chase Center Thursday. The win marked GU’s 7th in a row, and it snapped a 3-game losing skid against the spread (ATS).
Saint Mary’s, tabbed as 17th in the Coaches Poll, also played Thursday. The Gaels earned an ATS win as 15.5-point favorites; they won 83-57 at Pepperdine. SMC has not lost since Dec. 23; the Gaels are 16-0 since and that includes a 64-62 victory over these Bulldogs Feb. 3.
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Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Gonzaga +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Saint Mary’s -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Gonzaga +2.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 71, Gonzaga 67
Moneyline
PASS. A Gaels tag of -140 or lower would make the SMC ML play the best option, but otherwise the ATS action cozies up to more value for the bettor.
Against the spread
GU is 0-3 ATS in games lined with totals in the 140s; the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS against teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game (PPG).
The Gaels, who allow 58.1 PPG, are 10-5 ATS in WCC action.
It does not happen often, but it does happen. Over the last 3 years, Gonzaga has been an underdog 6 times. The Bulldogs went 1-5 ATS.
Saint Mary’s boasts a strong interior defense and tremendous rebounding. The Bulldogs did a nice job keeping SMC off the glass in the Feb. 3 meeting (just 7 SMC offensive rebounds despite a relatively low shooting percentage). Look for a push in that area and for the Gaels to get a win in 2-possession territory.
TAKE SAINT MARY’S -2.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
When GU has played those defense-1st squads yielding 64 or fewer points, the Under has prevailed with a 5-0 mark.
The Under hit in the 1st meeting, and that was on a total of 138.5. Figure on ultra-slow SMC controlling the pace and on a game without a ton of frees and 3s.
BACK THE UNDER 141.5 (-110).
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