The Phoenix Suns (8-8) host the Golden State Warriors (10-8) Thursday at PHX Arena for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Warriors-Suns NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Golden State beat the brakes off of the Minnesota Timberwolves in back-to-back games coming into Thursday and has a 4-3 overall record (4-3 against the spread) over the last two weeks.
The Suns have struggled recently and following a week of COVID-19-related postponements, they’re just 1-4 overall and ATS since Jan. 18. Phoenix SG Devin Booker exited a 130-126 overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets with a hamstring injury last Friday and has missed the past two losses.
These teams split last season’s series 2-2 but Golden State covered the spread in three of those meetings.
Warriors at Suns: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +2.5 (-110) | Suns -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Suns: Key injuries
Warriors
- None affecting the betting odds.
Suns
- SG Devin Booker (hamstring) questionable
- PG Cameron Payne (foot) probable
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Warriors at Suns: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Warriors 113, Suns 106
Money line (ML)
Phoenix cannot exploit where Golden State is weak; the Warriors’ opponents have the highest free-throw attempt rate in the Association but the Suns have the second-lowest free-throw attempt rate.
Also, Golden State is seventh in opponent’s effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) but Phoenix is 24th in eFG% in the last five games. In their previous seven games, the Warriors are moving the ball well—second in assist ratio—which leads to open looks, and they have the sixth-best eFG% in that time span.
Compound these stats with Booker listed as questionable on the injury report and what is there to like about the Suns here? Finally, this is a fade the market spot as this game opened at a pick ‘em but Phoenix has been steamed up to a favorite.
As always, monitor the injury report but if Booker doesn’t play, GIMME WARRIORS (+115) for a half-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
Personally, I’m going to buy insurance for my Golden State money line wager with a half-unit BET on WARRIORS +2.5 (-110).
I like the move by Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to sit No. 2 overall pick C James Wiseman for C Kevon Looney in the short term and Golden State’s defense is ninth in defensive rating over the last 10 games.
Over/Under (O/U)
Since the focus of my handicap was how Golden State’s defense matches up with Phoenix’s offense, I lean Under 220.5 (-110) but officially I’ll PASS. The Warriors’ most obvious path to victory is hot shooting from PG Steph Curry, which then provides wide-open looks for his teammates.
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Also see:
- 3 things to know: James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre Jr. lead Warriors past T-Wolves, 123-111 (Warriors Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Warriors | Suns
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