The Dallas Mavericks (9-14) play host to the Golden State Warriors (12-10) for a second consecutive game Saturday at American Airlines Center. The tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Warriors-Mavericks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Golden State dominated Dallas in a 147-116 win Thursday, which is the most points the Warriors have scored in a game this season. The Warriors didn’t have an active player taller than 6-foot-7 yet they outscored the Mavs 54-36 in the paint and out-rebounded them 45-42. They’ve been up and down recently, going 4-2 straight up and against the spread over their previous six games.
The Mavs have been the most disappointing team in the NBA to start the season and are 14th in the Western Conference standings. Dallas has lost seven of its last eight games (1-7 ATS) and it’s playing the worst defense in the Association over that span.
Warriors at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mavericks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +4.5 (-120) | Mavericks -4.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 231.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Warriors at Mavericks: Key injuries
Warriors
- PF Eric Paschall (knee) questionable
- C James Wiseman (wrist) out
- C Kevon Looney (ankle) out
Mavericks
- None.
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Warriors at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Warriors 120, Mavericks 116
Money line (ML)
This Dallas thing stinks and we’re getting to the point in the year when it’s fair to wonder if the Mavs are in for a bad season. While Mavericks PG Luka Doncic has a bright future, I’m a firm believer superstars who get the majority of the praise also deserve the lion’s share of the blame when their team plays like trash.
Luka has the second-highest usage rate in the league, is shooting below 30% from behind the arc, and frequently complains when he doesn’t get a foul call (which is short-sighted considering he’s attempted the fourth-most free throws in the league) leading to lapses in defense.
Practically speaking, a Dallas team that had record-setting offensive efficiency last season should feast on a Golden State team that has zero bigs but the Mavs are 25th in percentage of attempts at the rim (according to CleaningtheGlass.com), are 11th in 3-point attempts per game, and are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league.
Based on their current form, the Mavs are a team to fade at the moment so I lean WARRIORS (+145) for a tiny wager.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Again, Dallas should beat the brakes off of Golden State so taking the points with the WARRIORS +4.5 (-120) is the way better wager in this spot.
Truth be told, I probably won’t bet either the money line or spread too heavily because it’s difficult to fathom how a team without any bigs can rout a team like Golden State did with Dallas the other night.
I lean WARRIORS +4.5 (-120) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
With no bigs, the Warriors shouldn’t be able to stop anyone and the Mavericks simply haven’t been able to this season; however, the market has overrated both offenses this season hence the combined 20-25 O/U record.
It’s too obvious to take the Over so I only lean OVER 231.5 (-115) for a half-unit.
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Also see:
- 2021 NBA Mock Draft consensus 1.0: The complete first round (Rookie Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Warriors | Mavericks
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