The Boston Celtics try to keep their season alive when they host the Golden State Warriors Thursday at TD Garden Arena for Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ABC) with Golden State leading the best-of-7 series 3-2. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State can win its 4th NBA title in 8 years after Monday’s 104-94 home win in Game 5.
The Celtics lost by double digits despite grabbing 8 more rebounds than the Warriors (47-39), hitting 2 additional 3-pointers (11-9), attempting 16 more free throws (31-15) and holding Steph Curry to a series-worst 16 points on 31.8% shooting (0-for-9 from behind the arc).
The Warriors are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series, but they’ve split the “four factors” with the Celtics and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U).
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NBA Finals Game 6 betting breakdown
Warriors at Celtics odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Celtics -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Warriors +3.5 (-105) | Celtics -3.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Warriors at Celtics key injuries
Celtics
- C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable
Warriors
- SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
- F Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
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Warriors at Celtics picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 109, Celtics 102
Money line
SPRINKLE on the WARRIORS (+140) with the plan of hitting Golden State’s spread harder. Generally, the spread doesn’t come into play and the team that covers the spread also usually wins the game outright.
But, I have a hunch the spread could come into play in Games 6 and 7 (if necessary). By taking Golden State plus the points, there could be a “middle” or “hedge” opportunity by betting Boston in-game if the Warriors get up big early.
That said, Golden State is the right side because Boston’s half-court offense has been rife with mistakes in this series. The Celtics’ clumsy ball security was an issue again in Game 5 as Boston committed 12 more turnovers than the Warriors (18-6).
The bottom line is it feels like the Celtics are out of moves. Boston’s half-court offense consists of setting screens for either Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in hopes of getting them 1-on-1 with a smaller defender. The thing is Tatum and Brown keep turning the ball over in those scenarios.
Tatum infamously broke the record for the most turnovers committed in a postseason during Game 5. Boston’s 2 All-Star wings typically settle for long, contested 2-pointers since the Celtics don’t have a true floor general to help generate quality looks for the offense.
Due to officiating, a possible hot-3-point shooting night from the Celtics or an off-shooting night by the Warriors, Golden State’s spread is the sharper play.
But SPRINKLE on the WARRIORS (+140) to close out the NBA Finals in Boston.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the WARRIORS +4.5 (-120) ALTERNATE LINE instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis.
Even though the spread doesn’t impact most playoff games and typically the team that covers the spread just wins outright.
I’d rather spend a little extra for an additional point than bet a cheaper Golden State spread +3.5 (-105). Also, Boston is just 5-6 ATS at home in these playoffs.
Finally, we have a contrarian angle with the Warriors because a majority of the public is betting on the Celtics according to Tipico Sportsbook.
The WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in Game 6.
Over/Under
PASS.
There isn’t a big enough gap between my numbers and the market’s projected score to take a stab at the total.
If anything, I “lean” to the Over 209.5 (-112) because the Under 209.5 (-108) feels like a “fake sharp” wager. Everyone understands playoff games play slower as the series extends but that logic is already “baked into the number.”
More importantly, there’s too much firepower and both teams have high 3-point attempt rates. If either team gets down big then the pace will pick up, which should lead to a turn of 3-pointers from either team.
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