Georgia, the defending SEC champion, has won the last two national championships, and the Bulldogs have lost a single game since November 2020. The consensus top team in the country remains unbeaten to start the year, so one could be forgiven for thinking they’re a shoo-in for the conference title again.
ESPN’s FPI says that isn’t so. In fact, three other Power 5 schools have a better chance to win their conference by the FPI models than Georgia does to walk away with the SEC. And despite an early loss to Texas, ESPN doesn’t think Alabama fans should abandon hope for their season yet. The percentages resemble more of a toss-up than anything, with Georgia only holding a 43.7% chance compared to Alabama’s 34.8%.
The FPI models seem to like a lot of the 1-loss SEC teams more than some who remain unbeaten. LSU obviously wasn’t punished much for a loss to playoff contender FSU, especially with how dominant they’ve looked at times since. Despite the rumor mill thinking Jimbo Fisher doesn’t have a firm grip on his job after a disappointing 2022, FPI thinks Texas A&M is still one of the best in the conference.
The models also still see Hail Mary visions for Tennessee and Ole Miss despite multi-score road losses to start their conference schedule. In fact, FPI seems to think Tennessee has a higher chance to make noise in the SEC East than Florida despite the Gators taking them down head-to-head.
Florida, Kentucky, and Missouri don’t register as large threats in FPI’s models despite the Gators’ statement win and Kentucky and Missouri’s pristine records. The Tigers have the best strength of record in the conference after taking down Kansas State and Memphis, but all three of them would need to get through Georgia in the SEC East to even make the title game.
Here’s how ESPN breaks down the contenders:
| Team | W-L | Conf. W-L | FPI (Rank) | Win Conf. % | Make Playoff % |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 4-0 | 1-0 | 23.3 (5) | 43.7% | 35.3% |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 3-1 | 1-0 | 23.9 (3) | 34.8% | 21.2% |
| LSU Tigers | 3-1 | 2-0 | 18.6 (14) | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 3-1 | 1-0 | 16.1 (16) | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Ole Miss Rebels | 3-1 | 0-1 | 18.7 (13) | 2.7% | 3.9% |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 3-1 | 0-1 | 13.8 (18) | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Florida Gators | 4-0 | 1-0 | 9.1 (31) | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 4-0 | 1-0 | 7.2 (36) | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Missouri Tigers | 4-0 | 0-0 | 6.2 (40) | 0.5% | 0.1% |