Why TCU Will Win The College Football Playoff National Championship
TCU can move the ball on the Georgia defense.
The Bulldog D is great, the NFL will be loaded with a fresh batch of players from the program in a few months and over the next couple of years, but it’s not the same.
Even though it was No. 1 in the SEC in total defense and 11th in the nation overall, it can be bombed on.
Most of the time, everyone throws on the Georgia secondary to try keeping up. However, the secondary allowed 200 yards or more in six of the last seven games – Tennessee’s 195-yard day was the outlier – and it has been rocked over the last two outings.
The SEC Championship might have been a blowout, but LSU’s passing attack cranked up over 500 yards through the air, and CJ Stroud was magnificent in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl hitting 68% of his passes for 348 yards and four scores. Georgia’s defense gave up 15 touchdown passes all season, and seven of them came in the last two outings.
TCU can add to that.
This is a fantastically balanced TCU attack with a ton of explosion both on the ground and through the air. No one ran on Michigan this season – Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado didn’t have much of a problem, combining to average close to eight yards per pop as the ground game ran for 263 yards.
No one did anything against the Georgia run defense this year, but Missouri almost pulled off the shocker partly by averaging close to 4.9 yards per carry. Ohio State only ran for 119 yards, but that was enough to help the cause.
Forget the total yards, if TCU averaged 3.5 yards or more per pop, it’ll be doing its job. The deep shots from Max Duggan to Quentin Johnson and company will be there.
However …
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Why Georgia Will Win The College Football Playoff National Championship
Shhhhhhh, we’re talking just between us, right? Let’s keep this quiet because we don’t want to take anything away from what TCU accomplished. So shhhhhhhhhh …
Michigan totally gagged that away.
Awful early play-calling, awful late play-calling – trying to score 18 points with every deep throw – not sticking with the run enough for stretches, three turnovers – and two pick-sixes – for a team that didn’t turn the ball over more than once in any game and gave it away seven times total in the first 13 outings, the defense opting out in the third quarter …
That was nothing like the rock-steady Michigan team that rolled through the season.
And even with ALL of that, it was still a 51-45 final with the Wolverines putting 39 points on the board in the second half.
But all kidding aside, give credit to TCU. The moment was too big for Michigan until it was too late. It wasn’t for TCU.
The Horned Frogs took advantage of every opportunity, hung on for dear life, and found a way to get the job done just like they have all season long. This is a very, very good team about to come out of the tunnel.
But TCU hasn’t dealt with anything like this.
Granted, that rationale went for dealing with the Michigan lines, too, and everything turned out okay. However, Michigan isn’t the defending national champ. As good as that team was, it didn’t have Georgia’s talent.
TCU needed a miracle to get by Baylor, lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship, got a fight from Kansas, and the Michigan game was a battle to the end. In all, the Horned Frog D allowed 185 rushing yards or more five times and 4.7 yards or more per carry in all of them.
Georgia got past the 185-yard mark eight times and averages way over five yards per carry in all of them. Other than the 16-6 win over Kentucky and the sluggish 39-22 victory over Kent State, all of those wins were blowouts.
The Bulldog offense won’t pull a Michigan. It’s not going to get cute, it’ll keep powering away, and it’ll never, ever panic. It’s D won’t get on the bus and leave after halftime, and it’s about to get another great performance out of QB Stetson Bennett as he finishes up against a TCU defense that doesn’t generate enough of a pass rush.
However …
– CFP National Championship Prediction, What’s Going To Happen, History