Why Georgia State Will Win
– The running game is dangerous enough to take over. A win hasn’t been guaranteed when the Panthers take off for over 200 yards, but they’re close to being able to take over games. Not only is the ground game fantastic, but the team is great at closing – it doesn’t miss chances in the red zone.
– The pass rush is devastating. The D is the best in the Sun Belt at generating sacks and tackles for loss, starting with Jordan Strachan and a linebacking corps that’s always working and always pushing into the backfield. The WKU offensive line is okay, but it’s nothing special and it doesn’t do enough for the ground game and for the offense that just doesn’t score.
– That’s not quite fair – the Hilltoppers managed to put up 38 against FIU and 37 against Charlotte over the last two games. That’s FIU and Charlotte. The Georgia State defense isn’t amazing, but it’s terrific on third downs and outstanding at taking the ball away. As long as that pass rush keeps working, the WKU offense that doesn’t move the chains will bog down.
Why WKU Will Win
– The WKU secondary has been among the best in the country for most of the year – at least statistically. It hasn’t faced a whole lot of high-powered passing teams, but it allowed fewer than 170 yards seven times. It gave up three touchdown passes in the opener against Louisville, three to BYU, and three more to Charlotte to end the year. It gave up a grand total of three to everyone else.
– No, the WKU offense doesn’t score a whole lot, but it’s coming off of its best game of the year. The team failed to hit 200 yards rushing and 200 passing in the same game, but it did against Charlotte in the win. As long as the O is doing something, and as long as there aren’t a slew of turnovers, the defense should be good enough to take care of the rest. It helps that …
– Georgia Southern gives the ball away way too much. It turned it over 19 times on the season and multiple times in six games. It hasn’t always been a deathblow for the Panthers, but considering WKU needs all the help it can get with its offense, at least two takeaways would mean a world of difference.
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