Sacks are credited to defensive players. However, as Seahawks fans had to learn the hard way during the Russell Wilson years, quarterbacks play a huge role in those numbers, as well. In fact, you can make a case that QBs are far more responsible for sacks than either pass rushers or protectors.
Separating legitimate pressures from ones that quarterbacks run themselves into is difficult business, though. One analyst has come up with a stat that does a good job making that distinction. According to Travis May, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has the third-lowest sack probability over expected in the league. Only Mac Jones and Patrick Mahomes have done better.
How much sack ownership should be attributed to each NFL QB?
I wanted to find out so I built a sack probability over expected model.
This is the % probability each QB adds or subtracts to/from baseline sack expectation per play.
Mahomes is a ninja đĽˇ
Howell & Jones are not đ˘ pic.twitter.com/Eqp029Lyrg— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) October 10, 2023
While his fantasy numbers are nothing to write home about, this is one of a few areas where Geno Smith is playing even better than he was last season during his Comeback Player of the Year campaign. In addition to a significant drop in his interception rate, Smith has proven to be much more agile in and out of the pocket in 2023.
That’s helped mitigate the losses of Charles Cross and Abe Lucas and kept Seattle’s offense performing at a high level despite not having all the pieces integrated just yet (JSN’s breakout game will come eventually).
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