Genesis Invitational odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

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The 2020 Genesis Invitational hosts a field of 120 golfers this week in Pacific Palisades, California. Eight of the top-10 golfers from the Official World Golf Ranking are among them, making this the top PGA Tour event of the season thus far. Below, we’ll analyze the golf betting odds, while making our picks to win the 2020 Genesis Invitational.

The key stats for the 7,322-yard, par-71 Riviera Country Club are:

• Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Birdies Gained
• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
• Driving Distance Gained

My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 50 rounds on courses between 7,200 and 7,400 yards.

Genesis Invitational – Tier 1

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9 p.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+2000)

There isn’t likely to be anyone in the field this week more motivated than Koepka, who gave up the No. 1 spot in the OWGR to Rory McIlroy on Monday morning. With the bump in the rankings, Koepka’s outright odds to win a tournament plummeted. By contrast, Koepka is +900 to win the Masters, +1000 to win the British Open, +800 for the U.S. Open and +800 for the PGA Championship.

While he missed the cut in 2017 (his only appearance in the last five years), this is nearly a major-caliber field. Koepka remains second in the OWGR, but he’s seventh by the odds this week.

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Adam Scott (+3000)

Scott ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained at Riviera among those with a minimum of 10 rounds played on the course. Ranked 14th in the world, he’s coming off a win at the Australian PGA Championship in late December and is well rested. He looks to become the third Aussie to win on the PGA Tour in 2020 behind Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith.

Genesis Invitational – Tier 2

Collin Morikawa (+4500)

Morikawa has never participated in this event, but he offers adequate value after routinely being priced among the favorites in the weaker early-season events. He still hasn’t missed a cut as a professional, and he ranks 18th by the overall stat model as a great ball striker.

Kevin Na (+6600)

Na tied for 33rd last year following a co-runner-up finish in 2018 and a T-4 in 2017. He rebounded from a missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open to tie for 14th last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s one of the best in the elite field in SG: Around the Green.

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Genesis Invitational – Longshots

Jason Kokrak (+10000)

Though he lacks the winning pedigree of many of those in the field, Kokrak has done well at Riviera. He has made the cut each of the last five years and was a co-runner-up in 2016. He ranks sixth in the field in total strokes gained over those five appearances.

Francesco Molinari (+12500)

Yes, this is the same Francesco Molinari as the 2018 Open Champion. He enters the week ranked 24th by the OWGR, but he was inside the top 10 as recently as September. He’s coming off missed cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and the American Express, but these odds are laughable for one of the best iron players in the world.

Complete odds

Player	Odds
Rory McIlroy	+700
Jon Rahm	+850
Justin Thomas	+850
Dustin Johnson	+1400
Tiger Woods	+1600
Patrick Cantlay	+1800
Brooks Koepka	+2000
Xander Schauffele	+2000
Bubba Watson	+2200
Hideki Matsuyama	+2500
Tony Finau	+2500
Adam Scott	+3000
Jason Day	+3300
Justin Rose	+4000
Marc Leishman	+4000
Patrick Reed	+4000
Phil Mickelson	+4000
Bryson DeChambeau	+4500
Collin Morikawa	+4500
Matt Kuchar	+4500
Paul Casey	+4500
Jordan Spieth	+5000
Sergio Garcia	+5500
Abraham Ancer	+6000
Sungjae Im	+6000
J.B. Holmes	+6600
Kevin Na	+6600
Matthew Fitzpatrick	+6600
Alex Noren	+8000
Branden Grace	+8000
Cameron Smith	+8000
Max Homa	+8000
Nick Taylor	+8000
Charles Howell III	+9000
Joaquin Niemann	+9000
Ryan Moore	+9000
Scottie Scheffler	+9000
Adam Hadwin	+10000
Brendon Todd	+10000
Brian Harman	+10000
Cameron Champ	+10000
Chez Reavie	+10000
Corey Conners	+10000
Erik Van Rooyen	+10000
Jason Kokrak	+10000
Keegan Bradley	+10000
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	+10000
Ryan Palmer	+10000
Scott Piercy	+10000
Bud Cauley	+12500
Carlos Ortiz	+12500
Danny Willett	+12500
Francesco Molinari	+12500
Lanto Griffin	+12500
Matthew Wolff	+12500
Russell Knox	+12500
Vaughn Taylor	+12500
Andrew Putnam	+15000
Charley Hoffman	+15000
Emiliano Grillo	+15000
Jhonattan Vegas	+15000
Jim Furyk	+15000
Matt Jones	+15000
Patrick Rodgers	+15000
Joel Dahmen	+17500
Luke List	+17500
Rory Sabbatini	+17500
Wyndham Clark	+17500
Aaron Baddeley	+20000
Aaron Wise	+20000
Andrew Landry	+20000
Cameron Tringale	+20000
Denny McCarthy	+20000
Dylan Frittelli	+20000
Harold Varner III	+20000
Kevin Chappell	+20000
Kevin Tway	+20000
Martin Laird	+20000
Nate Lashley	+20000
Nick Watney	+20000
Pat Perez	+20000
Scott Stallings	+20000
Sebastián Muñoz	+20000
Sung Kang	+20000
Adam Long	+22500
Danny Lee	+22500
James Hahn	+22500
Talor Gooch	+22500
Adam Schenk	+25000
Jimmy Walker	+25000
Kyle Stanley	+25000
Matt Every	+25000
Sam Ryder	+25000
Troy Merritt	+25000
Brian Gay	+30000
Chris Stuard	+30000
Bronson Burgoon	+30000
J.J. Spaun	+30000
Jason Dufner	+30000
Joseph Bramlett	+30000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	+30000
Michael Thompson	+30000
Peter Malnati	+30000
Russell Henley	+30000
Sam Burns	+30000
Sepp Straka	+30000
Steve Stricker	+30000
C.T. Pan	+40000
Kyongjun Moon	+40000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	+40000
Scott Brown	+40000
Si Woo Kim	+40000
Chris Stroud	+50000
Jim Herman	+50000
Roger Sloan	+50000
Ryan Armour	+50000
Tyler Duncan	+50000
Martin Trainer	+100000