Florida’s 13-0 start to the 2024-25 season has the Gators steady at No. 13 on the ESPN Basketball Power Index on New Year’s Eve.
The Gators defeated Stetson by 40 points on Sunday to close out non-conference play with a perfect record. It’s the program’s best start to a season since winning the national championship in 2005-06.
Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes.
Florida’s BPI is 17.0, further broken down as 8.7 (17th) on offense and 8.3 (17th) on defense. Compared to last week’s BPI numbers — 17.0, 9.4 and 7.6 — the offensive rating is down and the defense improved a significant amount. Those changes are good for a six-spot drop on offense and a seven-spot jump on defense.
“The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”
ESPN BPI Projections
ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 23.6-7.4 overall record (the same as last week) and a 10.6-7.4 record in conference play (also the same) based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. With no more non-conference games on the schedule, those two projections will change identical amounts week-by-week moving forward.
The Gators have 4.5% odds to win the conference, down 0.1% from last week. Florida faces the 14th-toughest schedule moving forward. As expected, the conference schedule will be a gauntlet.
NCAA Tournament Resume
The perfect start has the Gators ranked fifth overall in strength of record — down from fourth a week ago — which translates to a No. 2 seed if the season were to end today. All four projected No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma and Tennessee — are SEC programs on Florida’s schedule.
Florida’s overall strength of schedule is now No. 117, and its non-conference strength of schedule is No. 107. The Gators only have one “quality win” (against the top 50 in BPI) on record, against North Carolina, but that number should increase as the SEC schedule progresses.
ESPN gives Florida 1.4% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 3.7% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (8.6%) or Elite Eight appearance (20.5%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (42.9%) and Round of 32 appearance (77.9%).
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