Gators hoops holds steady in KenPom after 12th-straight win

Florida basketball’s 12th-straight win to start the season has the Gators holding steady at No. 7 in the latest ratings from KenPom.

The Florida Gators (12-0) remain at No. 7 in the KenPom College Basketball Ratings after a 12th-straight win to start the season.

Florida defeated North Florida by more than 50 points on Saturday, which led to a nice bump in several statistical categories tracked by KenPom. A net rating of plus-27.36 is 0.86 points higher than the last time Gators Wire checked in on Dec. 18.

Many college hoops experts and oddsmakers consider Pomeroy’s ratings to be the gold standard in the sport, and its reputation has lasted for more than 20 years.

“His ratings are derived from a proprietary algorithm, with the core centered on the Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage, made famous by baseball statistician Bill James,” ESPN explains.

“Pomeroy’s formula is designed to be purely predictive, with an emphasis on margin of victory. He factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and even luck, but does not, however, take into consideration injuries or emotional factors.”

SEC KenPom ratings

Auburn (plus-36.32, 1st) leads all SEC programs followed by Tennessee (plus-31.22, 3rd), Florida and Alabama (plus-24.45, 9th) inside the top 10.

Twelve of the 16 SEC programs are ranked inside the top 50.

Mississippi State (plus-22.01, 19th) and Texas A&M (plus-21.99, 20th) leapfrogged Kentucky (plus-20.67 26th), which is now just outside the top 25.

Ole Miss (plus-19.82, 30th), Texas (plus-17.99, 35th), Oklahoma (plus-17.64, 37th), Georgia (plus-17.33, 38th) and Arkansas (plus-16.85, 42nd)  are the other top-50 programs in the conference.

Missouri (plus-15.04, 51st) and Vanderbilt (plus-14.87, 53rd) are just outside the top-50, with LSU (plus-13.49, 60th) and South Carolina (plus-12.42, 65th) close behind.

Breaking down the KenPom ratings

Date Nov. 12 (Week 1) Nov. 20 (Week 2) Nov. 26 (Week 3) Dec. 2 (Week 4) Dec. 9 (Week 5) Dec. 18 (Week 6) Dec. 24 (Week 7)
W-L 3-0 5-0 6-0 8-0 9-0 11-0 12-0
NetRtg +19.83 (20) +20.74 (22) +21.86 (18) +25.33 (8) +25.30 (8) +26.50 (7) +27.36 (7)
ORtg 117.2 (13) 118.1 (11) 119.5 (8) 120.2 (9) 121.9 (5) 122.8 (7) 122.8 (6)
DRtg 97.4 (49) 97.4 (51) 97.6 (49) 94.9 (22) 96.6 (29) 96.3 (21) 95.4 (17)
AdjT 73.2 (47) 71.7 (72) 70.4 (93) 69.2 (125) 69.0 (131) 70.1 (83) 70.4 (84)
Luck +.000 (117) +.000 (182) +.000 (188) +.003 (181) +.002 (187) +.010 (178) +.033 (125)
SOS Net -4.16 (237) -4.27 (239) -3.79 (252) -0.55 (189) -1.28 (208) +2.11 (102) +.070 (130)
SOS ORtg 100.8 (265) 100.0 (293) 101.4 (303) 103.2 (269) 102.6 (319) 105.6 (230) +106.0 (204)
SOS DRtg 105.0 (198) 104.3 (167) 105.2 (164) 103.8 (62) 103.9 (87) 103.5 (45) 105.3 (83)
NCSOS Net -4.16 (237) -4.27 (239) -3.79 (252) -0.55 (189) -1.28 (209) +2.11 (98) +0.70 (139)

Since Gators Wire last checked in with KenPom, Florida’s adjusted offensive efficiency rating has held steady at 122.8 points per 100 possessions, and the defense is allowing 0.9 fewer points per 100 possessions. Those numbers translate to a one-spot jump in the offensive ratings and a four-spot increase on defense.

Florida’s adjusted tempo improved for a second-straight week, jumping 0.3 possession per 40 minutes; however, the Gators fell one spot overall in that category. After a preseason projection of 73.6 possessions per 40, Florida dipped as low as 69.0 earlier this month. The Gators are back inside the top 100 but still have work to do to crack the top-40 expectation set at the beginning of the season.

Florida was favored in most of its non-conference games this year, so its luck rating hasn’t deviated much from a baseline triple zeroes at the beginning of the year. At plus-.033, the number is almost insignificant, which is a good thing. High luck can mean a lower rating and negative luck can mean underperforming.

Strength of Schedule according to KenPom

KenPom’s strength of schedule ratings only considers the games played, and Florida hasn’t played the toughest non-conference slate by any means. Following a big jump in the SOS Net a week ago, Florida’s schedule took a small but not insignificant dip. The Gators have now played the 103th toughest schedule among Divison I programs and the 139th-toughest non-conference schedule.

Florida has one more non-conference game on the schedule, a home game against Stetson later this week.

Looking back at Florida’s 11 wins: five have come against top-100 programs, North Carolina (28th), Arizona State (59th), Florida State (70th), Wake Forest (98th) and Virginia (100th); five have come against opponents rated between 100 and 200, Wichita State (105th), South Florida (180th) Jacksonville (187th), North Florida (188th) and Southern Illinois (196th); and two have come against opponents rated outside of the top 200, Grambling State (305th) and Florida A&M (350th).

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