In the latest NCAA Tournament bracket prediction from ESPN, Joe Lunardi has Florida just outside the projected field as the First Team Out. In the most recent “bubble watch” update, ESPN’s John Gasaway elaborated on that.
He has the Gators listed under the “Work to Do” section alongside Mississippi State. He considers Auburn and Kentucky locks to make the tournament, while he thinks Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and Arkansas all are in the “Should Be In” category.
Here’s what he said about the Gators’ candidacy.
Seasoned Bubble Watch readers will tell you the top of “Work to do” is where the drama and uncertainty peak. Teams comfortably above this location will likely make the tournament, while hopefuls below this spot can face long odds. But at the top of “Work to do,” it really could go either way. Which is applicable to Florida in particular because the Gators could hold this spot for a bit. A 16-8 record highlighted by a neutral-floor win over Ohio State feels bubbly, and the NET ranking and other metrics for Florida support that assessment. Mike White‘s team still has to play two games against Kentucky and one each against Auburn and Arkansas. Throw in dates against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Georgia, and a .500-ish mark the rest of the way — and more time at the top of “Work to do” — looks like a real possibility.
As Gasaway says, Florida seems to be near the low threshold of tournament teams by most metrics, and there’s definitely reason to believe this team will at least finish with double-digit losses with games against the league’s two best teams remaining, including two matchups against the Wildcats.
That Ohio State win is doing a lot of the legwork for the Gators, and if Tyree Appleby‘s buzzer-beater shot hadn’t gone through the net, this team could be outside of this discussion entirely. The Buckeyes rank No. 18 in the NET, but UF’s next best win was against Mississippi State, who ranks No. 56 and is not currently projected to make the tournament.
As Gasaway says, given the remaining schedule it looks like the Gators are destined to sweat all the way until Selection Sunday, as has been a common theme throughout White’s tenure.
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