Game 5, Rockets vs. Thunder: How and what to watch for

The Game 5 winner in a 2-2 NBA playoff series has advanced more than 80% of the time, historically. That’s what is on the line Wednesday.

Barring a last-minute reversal, All-Star guard Russell Westbrook (right quad strain) remains out for Wednesday’s Game 5 of Houston’s first-round playoff series versus Oklahoma City. So if the Rockets are going to flip the script after consecutive defeats in which they were outplayed late in close games, they’re likely going to need improvement from within.

With the best-of-seven series now tied at two games apiece, the winner of Game 5 has won more than 80% of such scenarios, historically. As a result, the Rockets know they have to figure things out, quickly.

“They played a little bit better than we did down the stretch,” Houston head coach Mike D’Antoni said after Game 4. “We had our looks, we didn’t make them. We turned the ball over a couple of times. That hurt us, but I thought both teams had a chance to win, we just didn’t do it.”

“There’s things we’ll adjust, and things we’ll look and get better at,” D’Antoni concluded. “It’s a two out of three series right now. Nothing’s lost, nothing’s gained, and we’ll go to work.”

As the series has progressed, the Thunder have become increasingly comfortable closing with a smaller lineup without traditional center Steven Adams. Instead, they’ve found success utilizing Lu Dort to defend James Harden; three strong playmaking guards in Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder; and the shooting and length of 6-foot-10 forward Danilo Gallinari to space the floor.

“They went small and tried to put [Danilo Gallinari] at the 5 and really tried to spread us out and attack one-on-one,” said Eric Gordon, who scored 23 points. “They scored a lot of baskets going one-on-one. We’re going to make adjustments, but this game was about defense, really.”

In some respects, the Thunder have beaten the Rockets at their own game. While Houston’s small-ball system is built around the principles of switching and versatility, with all defenders capable of guarding any position, Houston’s top frontcourt defenders like P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington, and Harden have struggled to stay in front of the guards.

“They’re quick guards,” Harden said after Game 4. “Obviously, they’re really good at getting into the paint.”

The tradeoff, without Adams, is that there’s little in the way of rim protection OKC. But Harden has struggled at times against Dort, and with Westbrook sidelined, there isn’t another Rocket who has consistently shown an ability to collapse the defense by scoring on his drives.

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Thus, with the series potentially on the line, it could be up to Harden (an All-Star and MVP finalist) to further elevate his level of play. In Monday’s Game 4, “The Beard” became the first player in NBA playoff history to lose while having 30+ points, 15+ assists, and 5+ rebounds.

“We strayed away from what we do on both ends of the ball.” Harden said of his team’s late collapse after leading by 13 late in the third quarter.

“Obviously teams are going to make runs. but it’s the way they made their run,” Harden explained. “We weren’t getting shots we wanted offensively, and defensively, we weren’t sticking to our principles.”

“So, it was a disaster on both ends,” Harden summed up.

At one point, Harden missed seven consecutive 3-pointers, which had many on social media urging him to drive inside more.

Fatigue may have also been a contributing factor, since D’Antoni played Harden a game-high 43 minutes and only sat him for one minute in the second half. With Houston’s bench struggling, it’s understandable why D’Antoni might have balked at the idea of playing reserves extended minutes in the second half of a close game, especially without Westbrook as an option to guide them while Harden rests.

After Harden, it’s Gordon and reserve guard Austin Rivers who would seem to be Houston’s best attackers — but both have been inconsistent throughout the series. If fatigue is a concern, D’Antoni could also experiment with bringing in the extra 3-point shooting of Ben McLemore, who played 24 minutes in Houston’s Game 1 victory (the team’s best offensive game of the series) but only nine minutes in the Game 4 defeat.

With McLemore largely benched and Rivers struggling, only six Rockets (the five starters plus Jeff Green) exceeded 15 minutes in Game 5. Perhaps the cumulative mileage made Harden and other starters less willing to drive inside and potentially absorb physical contact.

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Whatever the solution, Game 5 is the time for Houston to make those adjustments, since the team that goes up 3-2 in a best-of-seven NBA playoff series typically wins the series more than 80% of the time.

As the No. 4 seed, Houston will have “home-court advantage” in Game 5 over the No. 5 Thunder. To this point, the home team is four-for-four in the series. Yet, because all games are being played without fans at the NBA’s Disney World bubble in Florida, that trend seems largely coincidental. (Perhaps the Rockets enjoy the additional virtual fans, and some of the sounds of their usual Toyota Center public address system.)

Game 5 tips off at 5:30 p.m. Central on Wednesday, with a national broadcast shown on TNT and a regional version (with Houston announcers) on AT&T SportsNet Southwest. Both networks also have streaming options available for subscribers through their mobile apps.

For a further preview and analysis, check out the Locked on Rockets podcast (embedded below) with Ben DuBose and Jackson Gatlin.

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