Game 4, Rockets vs. Thunder: How and what to watch for

With a win, Houston goes up 3-1 in the series, with a shot to close it out in Game 5. If they lose, it is tied and a best-of-three battle.

In a close Game 3 with a controversial ending, the Houston Rockets narrowly missed out on a chance to go up 3-0 in their first-round series against Oklahoma City. In the history of the NBA playoffs, no team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series.

Even so, with a 2-1 series lead, the Rockets still feel relatively good about their overall position in the series. That wouldn’t be the case with a loss to the Thunder in Monday’s Game 4.

If Houston wins, they’re up 3-1 and have a chance to close out the series in five games — which would allow them to get a few days of rest before their second-round clash, likely against the West’s top seed, the Los Angeles Lakers. If they lose, it’s 2-2 and effectively a best-of-three battle, forcing the Rockets to scratch and claw just to stay alive. (Should they advance, they would only have minimal rest before the next series.)

All-Star guard Russell Westbrook (right quad strain) continues to make progress for the Rockets, but he remains listed as out for Game 4. Wednesday’s Game 5 would seem to be a realistic target.

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Aside from Westbrook’s absence, the biggest storyline for the Rockets could be getting MVP finalist James Harden comfortable against Lu Dort, a rookie guard for the Thunder. Dort missed Game 1 with a knee sprain, and Harden dominated with 37 points on 54.5% shooting — including 46.2% on 3-pointers. Houston scored 123 points in that win.

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But during the last two games, which Dort has played, Harden is averaging 29.5 points per game on 39.5% shooting, and just 20.8% on 3-pointers. The Rockets averaged 107.5 points in regulation in Game 2 and Game 3, down more than 15 from their Game 1 total.

Houston was one of the NBA’s top offenses all year in net rating, but that has plunged to 91.0 in minutes that Dort has played this series. “Lu’s effort on James and Eric was really, really great,” Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan said after Game 3. “He put his all into it.”

Harden is now shooting 5-of-34 (14.7%) against Dort this season. Per NBA.com statistics, in data encompassing both the 2019-20 regular season and playoffs, that’s the lowest percentage for Harden against any player that has guarded him for at least 30 total possessions.

Houston could also use better shooting from its supporting cast. In particular, Eric Gordon has struggled, having shot just 2-of-20 (10%) from 3-point range over his last two games.

“We like what we’re doing [on offense], we’re just not making a lot of shots,” head coach Mike D’Antoni said at Sunday’s practice.

The Rockets, who won Game 2 with stifling second-half defense, also called themselves out for making too many defensive mistakes in Game 3.

“Throughout the course of the game, we just made too many mental mistakes and gave them opportunities to score,” Harden said after Game 3. “It’s that simple. … We made too many mental mistakes, and personnel driven, which gave them threes [3-pointers] or layups. We have to limit those opportunities. And we will, I think, in Game 4.”

The Thunder were led in Game 3 by their three top guards in Dennis Schroder, Chris Paul, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — who scored 29, 26, and 23 points, respectively. Collectively, they easily had their most efficient shooting game of the series at 30-of-61 overall (49.2%).

Harden also put some blame on himself for picking up too many fouls early in the game, which limited his ability to play aggressively late in regulation and led to him fouling out in the first minute of overtime.

“I can’t pick up cheap fouls throughout the course of the game, and then I wouldn’t be in that position later in the game,” Harden said.

“I put that on myself.”

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There were, however, other officiating judgments that seemed to agitate the Rockets. Saturday’s officiating crew declined to review (without giving a reason) Chris Paul’s below-the-belt foul against Ben McLemore, and Sunday’s Last Two Minute report confirmed that the officials missed an OKC foul on a late inbounds turnover — which occurred with the Rockets leading by two points with only 24.4 seconds left and possession.

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Fair or not, the Rockets have to turn the page quickly to get ready for Monday’s crucial matchup, again at the NBA’s Disney World “bubble” in Florida. Game 4 between Houston and OKC tips off at 3:00 p.m. Central on Monday, with a national broadcast on TNT and a regional version (with Houston announcers) on AT&T SportsNet Southwest.

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