The St. Louis Cardinals (22-24, 3rd in NL Central), losers of two in a row and seven of their last 10, will try to right the ship against the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-34, 5 in NL Central) Friday. First pitch for game one of the doubleheader is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. We analyze the Cardinals-Pirates betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Cardinals at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Carlos Martinez vs. RHP Trevor Williams
Martinez has been limited to just three starts since he missed more than a month due to COVID-19. In 11 1/3 innings, he has allowed four home runs, which has helped lead to a 10.32 ERA.
- Martinez hasn’t shown his typical skills, but he has also been hurt by some bad luck. A .421 BABIP and 33% home run per fly ball rate have contributed to his poor numbers.
- Martinez has made two starts since returning from the injured list. Though he surrendered three earned runs in four innings in his last start, he did strike out eight Cincinnati Reds batters.
Williams is striking out more than 20% of opposing batters for the first time in his career, but that’s the only positive takeaway from his season. He is the owner of an unsightly 6.35 ERA and 1.63 WHIP nine starts into his 2020 campaign.
- Williams has really hit a rough patch lately, as he has surrendered 22 earned runs and nine homers in 21 innings over his last four starts.
- The vast majority of the damage against him has come on the road. In three home starts, he has recorded a 3.71 ERA, and for his career, he has fared much better at home (3.85 ERA vs 5.01 on road).
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Cardinals at Pirates: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Cardinals
- OF Dexter Fowler (personal) out
- RP Giovanni Gallegos (groin) out
Pirates
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
- RP Nick Burdi (elbow) out
- OF Anthony Alford (elbow) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Cardinals at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Pirates 5, Cardinals 4
Money line (ML)
- Cardinals (-176)
- Pirates (+160)
Martinez hasn’t been his usual, dominant self so far. His velocity is well below his typical level, and he has allowed seven earned runs and 16 base runners in just 7 2/3 innings since his return.
Williams is no sure thing to deliver a strong performance, but he does have a history of being much better at home than on the road. All told, the odds are a little too low for the Cardinals, so the underdog PIRATES +160 are the side to take.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Pirates (+160) to win would return a profit of $16. The same bet on the Cardinals nets a profit of just $5.68.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Cardinals -1.5 (+100)
- Pirates +1.5 (-121)
Given Martinez’s performance to date, he’s not likely to dominate, even against a subpar Pittsburgh offense. Meanwhile, Williams has a history of moderate success at PNC Park. He’ll be facing a St. Louis offense that has mustered just 12 runs total in the last six games, though four have been seven-inning contests.
Look for the PIRATES +1.5 (-121) to keep this one close enough to cover.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 6.5 (-110)
- Under 6.5 (-110)
Both teams rank in the bottom six in runs per game, and as part of a double-header, this game is only scheduled for seven innings. Even so, neither starting pitcher is a good bet to completely shut down his opponent, and both bring some blowup risk to the table.
We’ll give the edge to the OVER 6.5 (-110) on this total.
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